BP 2005 on the Mets

Hola amigos. I know it's been awhile since I rapped at ya...

I've been waiting to bust out the "Anchower lead" and today makes as much sense as any.

Baseball Prospectus 2005 just dropped, and though I haven't had much time to go through it, I thought I'd pilfer a few of their copyrighted comments on Mets players and hope to avoid a cease-and-desist order:

Heath Bell

"This minor league closer is the rare case whose peripherals have been better than his ERAs for three years running, in part because Bell has given up just one unearned run in three years. As Michael Wolverton [BP's reliever stat guru] suggests, we should ignore the difference between earned and unearned runs anyway, focusing on all runs allowed. Roughly comparable to the Rangers' Carlos Almanzar, Bell should be the Mets' top set-up man by the end of the year."

Joe Sheehan called him a sleeper in his chat today, in answer to my question (Cardinal991, New York) about the NL East picture.

Jose Reyes

"It's easy to point to Reyes's hamstring injuries as the reason for his lousy 2004, but the fact is that he's been rushed by the Mets. He isn't ready to hit at the major league level, and his power and batting eye both need serious work. With so many stop-gap middle infield candidates, the Mets should let Reyes go to Norfolk for at least half a season so that he can continue developing as a hitter. He can still be a star."

I've been very curious about the Reyes situation, and would be perfectly happy to see the front office swallow some pride and put Reyes back in the minor league oven. But I just don't see it happening. He'll probably hit lead off, definitely make a ton of outs, and hopefully improve.

Victor Zambrano

"He tied for the AL lead in walks despite being sent to the NL at the trade deadline, which is just an amazing feat. A strained flexor muscle ended his season after three starts with the Mets; he's expected to be healthy in the spring. The Mets traded Kazmir to get Zambrano in large part because of Rick Peterson's convictions. How Zambrano develops from here will go a long way to either cementing or ruining Peterson's reputation. Given Zambrano's age, workload and control, Peterson had better be a miracle worker."

Everyone has heard about Peterson's involvement in Black Friday. "Get Zambrano at all costs," the Rasputin of the Bay Area supposedly whispered in Duquette's ear, "I can fix him." Whether or not this advice was the deciding factor in this disastrous (yes I'm going to go ahead and call it that. You can reserve judgment all you want) trade, the buck stops at the GM's office. I am bearish on Zambrano, but at least he has the makings of a late bloomer.