Previewing the NL East - Washington Nationals

Pitching

Livan Hernandez had lost a lot of his World Series MVP luster in the two years prior to his acquisition by the Expos. As he entered his prime, he appeared to be getting bigger rather than better, and useful more for the sheer quantity of innings he could provide than their average-to-good quality.

In 2003, however, he suddenly became rather awesome. He struck out more batters (career high 6.87 K/9), walked fewer, and generally became very difficult to hit. He wasn’t quite as good last year, and his massive workload has to catch up to him at some point (doesn’t it?), but Hernandez is without a doubt the Nationals’ franchise player.

The demon that possessed Esteban Loaiza’s body for the duration of the 2003 season has apparently been exorcised. While the gate to the spirit world ought best remain closed, this is nonetheless an unfortunate development from a baseball standpoint. As the Yankees discovered firsthand after trying to acquire the nearly unhittable demon, “plain” Esteban is an average pitcher at best, and will probably remain so as a National.

Tony Armas, Jr. has been on everyone’s list of potential breakouts for a few seasons now. He’s now on the list of players most likely to suffer a major injury, pitching a total of 103 innings over the last two years. He’s still 26, so he can’t be removed from the first list yet, but he may never return to his buzzworthy form of 2001.

One bright spot in an otherwise worrisome bullpen is Cal State - Fullerton product Chad Cordero, who had a very nice year in 2004. Here is his line at age 22:

  IP   K  BB  HR   ERA

82.2  83  43   8  2.94

That’s a very nice season, and the strikeout numbers bode well for the future. The ERA, however, is probably misleading.

For one thing, his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was an unusually low .278*. He also induced 111 fly balls, against only 67 groundballs, which suggests he was lucky to only watch 8 of them leave the park. In short, if he pitched exactly the same way in 2005, he’d probably allow quite a few more runs. It’s hardly damning criticism of a guy his age, but he’s not a great reliever yet.

Offense

I’m not going to go through the entire National lineup because there’s not very much to say and even less of it is nice, but there are a few players worth mentioning.

Brad Wilkerson didn’t get credit for a breakout season last year, but he did hit 32 home runs and his 872 OPS was top-20 in the NL, just behind Miguel Cabrera. He will continue to hit for power, maybe moreso this year, and draw a lot of walks, thus generating offense while remaining under the radar of the more batting average-oriented.

Jose Vidro endured a dreadful slump early last season. His split for the month of May: 207/277/315 in 92 AB. That will put a damper on the ol’ season line, but Vidro caught fire in June and almost got it up to his career norms. He should remain one of the league’s best-hitting second baseman.

Despite his dismal slump at the end of last season, Nick Johnson is probably still a very good hitter, but he may have to follow Casey Martin’s lead if he’s ever going to play a full season. If he petitions the commissioner’s office to allow him the use of a specially-outfitted cart of some kind, I bet he’d post a 450 OBP with 25 homers and 30 doubles. He’s got hitting skills, I’m sure of it. His body’s just a wreck, is all. Why should he be denied his dream?

The acquisitions of Christian Guzman and Vinny Castilla are pretty much textbook blunders. Too much money? Of course but that’s the least of it. What’s really bad is a) the length of the contracts, and b) the mediocrity of the players acquired.

With the likes of Carlos Beltran, Tim Hudson, Carlos Delgado and Pedro Martinez coming to the NL East, the Nationals are probably headed for a long debut season. It’s almost impossible to imagine them finishing ahead of any of the four other teams in the division, even if everything goes their way.

At least they’ll look good doing it. God those are ugly.


*For those unfamiliar with this pitching statistic, it’s been shown to be a better measure of luck than skill, so Cordero’s low BABIP suggests that his H/9 and ERA were lower than they should have been, given his pitching performance. For more, check out the original, nay seminal article by Voros McCracken.

Notes

As convenient as it may sound, I am (and always have been) a New England Patriots fan, so I'm obviously excited to see them add to their resume as the best team of their era. The Eagles played a tough game, but were simply overmatched. The game was made to look a lot closer by their last touchdown, which was the result of a flukish blown coverage by a replacement safetly.

The Tigers gave Magglio Ordonez a 5-yr/$75MM contract. Here's what Baseball Prospectus's Joe Sheehan wrote last week: "If Magglio Ordonez signs for anything close to what Scott Boras is apparently asking for--five years at more than $10 million per--then the signing team is completely insane." Hmmm... And he's getting MUCH more than that. Don't hurt'em Joe.

Apologies for the inactivity at the end of last week. I was in Vegas enjoying another hobby at the Bellagio $4-$8 tables. Phil Ivey made an appearance (at the high-stakes tables, of course).