Having been picked by many if not most to unseat Atlanta as division champ, Larry Bowa's squad took the lead briefly in July before losing 9 of 10 and falling out of the race for good.
Their record stood below .500 in September, and it took a late-season streak against the Marlins to salvage 2nd place.
Was it a lack of chemistry? Poor situational hitting? No. It was rather a sudden, vicious and staff-wide case of gopheritis.
K/9 K/BB HR/9 ERA
2003 6.61 1.98 0.89 4.04
2004 6.58 2.13 1.32 4.45
Some of that whopping 48 percent increase can be attributed to Citizens Bank Park, which ranked 5th among all Major League parks in homer-friendliness, just behind Coors Field... but only 13 percent.
The Philadelphia rotation was a shambles virtually all year, with Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla injured for stretches at a time. Brett Myers, whether he thinks so or not, was clearly not ready for prime time, striking out fewer than 6 per nine and generally getting knocked around to the tune of a 5.56 ERA .
One obvious solution, it would seem, was to get rid of Eric Milton, winner of the Golden Neck Brace award. In just 201 innings of work, the once-promising lefty was responsible for 43 souvenirs.
Appropriately, Milton will peddle his wares in Cincinnati this year, having been signed by scouting aficionado Dan O'Brien to a shocking 3yr/$25.5MM contract. Apparently O’Brien considers HR allowed to be a sign of guts.
It was not all addition-by-subtraction this winter for the Phils, as Jon Lieber was brought aboard to take over as the [cough] ace of the staff.
Lieber is a fine pitcher with eerie command coming off a year in which he would have clearly been the class of the Philly starters. His career rate of 1.11 HR/9 is certainly respectable, and his groundball/flyball numbers back it up, but he would probably be the worst staff ace among playoff contenders (now that STL has Mulder).
22 year-old Gavin Floyd looks like the real deal, beating fellow prospect Cole Hamels to the majors and flashing an excellent line in 28 1/3 IP: 24 K, 16 BB, 1 HR(!), 3.49 ERA. Forget the walks. That's freakin' awesome. Priority 1 for Philly management has to be keeping Floyd's arm intact through the injury nexus. Tell him to go easy on the curveballs for awhile, if you have to, but keep him healthy.
The biggest question for me is whether Randy Wolf will be healthy and return to his 2002 form, when he posted a 3.20 ERA with very good peripherals. Still only 28, I'd expect a healthy Wolf to make Lieber the #1 starter in name only.
The bullpen, should they coax 70 innings out of Billy Wagner, should be the best in the division.
Tim Worrell doesn't seem to be aging. He had an off year ERA-wise in 2004, but his 64K/21BB ratio was the best of his career. His age 37 year should be about as good as his last three, which is good.
Ryan Madson doesn't throw like Francisco Rodriguez, but looks to be among the best young relievers in baseball. In 77 innings he only walked 19 and surrendered just 6 home runs. Hitters may not strike out against him, but they're not likely to get on base either.
The good news for the Phillies last year? Their offense put plenty of runs on the board. 840 to be exact, which ranked third in the league, and closer to the Cardinals (855) and Giants (850) than the Braves (803).
The Abreu-Thome tandem is preposterously good, combining for 72 HR, 75 doubles, 231 walks and 40 steals (all Bobby's, naturally).
I suspect partly due to having played against the Yankees in the postseason (back in his Cleveland days), Thome gets his due recognition as a masher of baseballs. Meanwhile, and it's becoming a cliche, I know, but it's true: Bobby Abreu is still the most underrated player in the game.
Abreu went 30-40 while getting caught a mere 5 times, hit .301, approached a 4-digit OPS, drove in over 100 runs, scored close to 120, played a great right field... yet most baseball fans couldn't pick him out of lineup. Were it not for the aforementioned team pitching woes, which, bizarrely, hitters get blamed for in award balloting, he would have made the short list for MVP.
It wasn't just a late-season hot streak creating a false impression, Jimmy Rollins (289/348/445) really did break out last year, and then he turned 26 in November. He looks like a safe bet to avoid the Pokey Reese career path, and a decent bet to enjoy a better peak than Rafael Furcal, who's a few months older.
Doug Glanville having mercifully gone to his great reward, Kenny Lofton will be taking over in center field. Lofton's 346 OBP in 276 AB last year suggests his hitting skills are better-preserved than his body, but should he miss time or lose another step in the field, a very qualified Marlon Byrd will answer the bell.
The rest of the lineup is pretty much the same as last year, which is good. Chase Utley will start at second ahead of Polanco. The 26 year-old former Cotuit Kettleer has shown the potential to hit for Jeff Kent power, if not Jeff Kent average. It's enough to compensate for the fact that he's still not sure what this "strike zone" is that everyone's talking about.
All things considered, I think the Phillies can be expected to improve on last year's record, and be in the division race to the very last. They should give up fewer home runs, if not for their offseason moves than simply because it'd be hard to give up any more.
They should get more innings out of Wolf and Padilla, not to mention Floyd, and now that Smoltz is a starter they have the best closer in the division hands down. Then there's that offense. In short, Mets fans, it's a little bit scary.
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