Best "To be sure..." graf ever.

John Hinderaker of Powerline (Check the spiffy new masthead. Excuse me but are those Greek columns of the sort Hindrocket personally ridiculed Obama for having as a backdrop to his nomination speech? If it's grandiose for that occasion, isn't it necessarily ridiculous to have as the full-time masthead of your hilarious right wing blog?) wrote a post today entitled "Ray of Hope," which contains relatively upbeat polling data for McCain. But he can't bring himself to get too enthused:

"The [sic] is the strongest evidence we have of a late McCain surge, although lots of other polls aren't picking it up. Here's the real problem: even if these numbers are right, it's hard to see how McCain can get to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. Assume that he wins all the states where he is now leading. Assume further that he wins all six of the above states, although the Fox/Rasmussen surveys show him trailing by significant margins in two. Assume that in addition he pulls upsets in Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, where the latest Rasmussen poll has him down by six... Even on all of those rosy assumptions, he's still not to 270. He needs two more states."

Keep hope alive, John.

Credit where credit's due

Fred Hiatt:
To suggest, as Mr. McCain has, that there is something reprehensible about associating with Mr. Khalidi is itself condemnable -- especially during a campaign in which Arab ancestry has been the subject of insults. To further argue that the Times, which obtained the tape from a source in exchange for a promise not to publicly release it, is trying to hide something is simply ludicrous, as Mr. McCain surely knows.

Which reminds us: We did ask Mr. Khalidi whether he wanted to respond to the campaign charges against him. He answered, via e-mail, that "I will stick to my policy of letting this idiot wind blow over." That's good advice for anyone still listening to the McCain campaign's increasingly reckless ad hominem attacks. Sadly, that wind is likely to keep blowing for four more days.

via Attaturk

Update:
As Beutler points out, when even Marty Peretz cries foul...

"This is cleared by HQ."

High-ranking McCain campaign spokesman (and Ahmed Chalabi's lobbyist) Randy Scheunemann, in an email to Marc Ambinder:

Just read your post. This is on the record. This is cleared by HQ. It is a fact that Barack Obama was palling around with terrorists. It was a fact before Governor Palin said it in a fully vetted speech and it is fact today. It is bullshit to claim or write anything else.

Awesome.

Not an especially shiny silver lining

WSJ:
McCain's silver lining certainly lies in Florida where the race is more competitive, especially among seniors. Among Floridians 55 years old and above, Obama leads by only two percentage points, a number that's statistically insignificant.

If the good news for McCain is that Florida seniors only favor Obama slightly, the bad news must be very, very bad.

What is the deal with the McCain campaign?

Not many people I know are Republican operatives, and it would be kinda rude to ask the one who is, but what the hell is the McCain campaign doing?

Lindsey Graham, a guy in the inner circle if ever there was one, comes out and promises strong new language on taxes, but none is forthcoming. The candidate gets his first jolt of positive press in ages by scolding the crazy-cat lady who called Obama "an Arab," and then today turns around and declines to distance himself from a comparison of Obama to Osama bin Laden. And this is all while fighting a rearguard action against Bill Kristol, who was, deliciously, human anchor Sarah Palin's biggest champion. (The only bad thing about a Pfotenhauer-Kristol Smackdown is that it's never bloody enough. Oh and there's Kristol flying off the top turnbuckle with a devastating Knee-o-con on an unsuspecting but richly deserving Tucker Bounds! This is the kind of carnage they should make Pay-Per-View.)

I have to believe that the people running the McCain campaign are at least a little bit good at what they do. I'm not just going to settle on "Because they're total hacks that can't do anything right" as an explanation. But any secret strategy in an encrypted file on Steve Schmidt's laptop must involve doing a lot of stuff that doesn't make immediate sense.

Update:
Ambinder is harsh: "It's never good to overpromise to Mike Allen on Saturday, back track a little on Sunday, fail to give Lindsey Graham the message, whet everyone's appetites, offer new rhetoric Monday, throw your own campaign under the bus, facilitate your burned surrogates' leaking to the New York Times, and have nothing to put up against your opponents' four new policy proposals."

Bill Ayers for Secretary of Education

Questionable message

This ad takes numerous clips from the debate of Obama saying John McCain "is absolutely right" about this or that (before getting to his disagreements). It then asks the viewer to consider whether someone with this pattern of agreeing with John McCain can be trusted to lead. I'm having a hard time figuring out how this works as a McCain ad.

Rudy Giuliani, Shadow Veep

MSNBC just announced that the post-debate spin matchup will be Joe Biden and Rudy Giuliani. It was also Rudy Giuliani on the campaign plane this morning.

Weird that he would pop up like that at the same time Sarah Palin is getting thrown to the wolves.

Anyway the debate went pretty well I thought. I'm still surprised at how much less demented John McCain seems when he's not reading a prepared speech. He's still quite spry.

Obama seemed to be on offense more often, although there were times where I wished he'd stop trying to interrupt, on the theory that whatever McCain is going to say won't be that good and it makes BO look anxious.

Also, of all McCain's many deliveries of the "criminal or paternity" bear DNA joke, this one was far and away the angriest. People were too scared to laugh.

Bah!

I had dutifully composed a medium length post for today on my iPhone (not being home), but then I got an incoming call and it didn't survive.

The gist was that McCain's speech was awfully dull but that may not matter because the shiny creationist object that is Sarah Palin is dominating the zombies' attention anyway.

Obama's speech, Sarah Palin, etc.

It wasn't quite as vicious as John Kerry's, but other than that it was the hardest-hitting speech of the convention. I have no complaints. There were several lines of attack he'd never personally opened up before, most notably Phil Gramm's "nation of whiners" gaffe and his first use of the word "temperment." I liked the extra large podium, which made him look smaller, less threatening, and more humble/less fascist.

I didn't like it as much as Keith Olbermann did.

As for the Sarah Palin selection, politically I'm not 100% convinced that it's an absurdly stupid choice but I am about 90% convinced. It is doing a bang up job of stealing attention from the Democratic convention, but that's at best a temporary advantage. I'm not even sure, given the "Obama fatigue" phenomenon that was being discussed going into the convention, ceding center stage the McCain campaign might not be a bad thing.

Even if it does prove to be a good choice electorally, it's so cynical. Joe Klein wrote that it "reflects a defiant, adolescent 'screw you' attitude toward governance." Is that pretty disrespectful of Palin? Yeah, but c'mon.

Some wingnuts are actually buying into the argument that because her experience has been executive rather than legislative, it doesn't matter how few people live in Wasilla or all of Alaska, or how long she's been running the latter. They're also weirdly enthused about her being the mother of five (5) instead of just one or three.

One thing I find interesting is that even though this is understandably being characterized as a pick for the base, there are at least two card-carrying members of the Republican base over at Powerline who were not at all enthused about Palin.

Here's Hindrocket:

"The AP says the McCain camp "hopes the announcement of his running mate will stunt any momentum that Democratic rival Barack Obama might get from the just concluded Democratic National Convention." If it really is Palin, I'm afraid the opposite will happen. Press reaction will be 100% negative; the emphasis will all be on Palin's inexperience--she's been Governor of Alaska for less than two years--and the fallout will augment, not limit, Obama's convention bounce." [Emphasis mine]

And here's a post by Paul Mirengoff, in its entirety before adding updates later:

"I'm very disappointed that John McCain would put someone as inexperienced and lacking in foreign policy and national security background as Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency."

Speaking of "a heartbeat away," Marc Ambinder told readers to be on the lookout for this phrase from Democratic flacks, and darned if I'm not hearing it quite a bit this morning on MSNBC. I thought they'd be a little less aggressive about her than they have been, especially that initial "totally inexperienced" statement that Gibbs made right away and Obama later walked back personally.

With the caveat that Republicans have historically been very good at winning presidential elections, she really seems like a crazy choice to me, and it's a big relief. I thought the best part of McCain's brand, moreso than the 2005 apostasy on taxes, etc., was that he was one tough motherfucker who other countries wouldn't want to mess with on the world stage. For a man gearing up to lead us further into the great clash of civilizations, the beauty queen hockey mom governor of Alaska is a jarringy incongruous partner. Watching them appear together is going to be like flipping the channel back and forth between a war documentary and a reality TV show.

Can't wait for some fresh polling numbers. The Gallup tracking was promising (+8) but I don't think reflects all of the speech or the Palin pick.

Housegate

Boy did this story get a week's worth of attention today.

You'd have to attach electrodes to sensitive places on the D.C. press to get them to treat John McCain as a fancy pants rich guy like John Edwards, but I think it's a good idea for the Obama camp to run with it as far as they can.

But it's so very unfair, they complain. Rezko! Plus, they're not his homes, they're Cindy's, so this is all an attack on his wife.

Maybe McCain's plan for the economy is to have America find a hot, young country with lots of resources, marry it, and use its money to pay down our mortgages. That'd be pimp.

Washington Wire at its very worst

Elizabeth Holmes writes:

The Republican candidate had come under fire for associating with Reed, the former head of the Christian Coalition who fell from grace after his involvement with lobbyist Jack Abramoff. McCain was one of the leaders of the investigation of Abramoff's lobbying activities that led to his imprisonment. Reed was never charged.

To read this passage, you would think that the very suggestion that Ralph Reed is an undesirable associate is crazy. It is written as if there weren't emails unearthed by the House investigation between Reed and Abramoff. In those emails, Reed bragged about having Karl Rove block a nomination in the Interior Department who was seen as hostile to Abramoff's casino clients. Charged or not, Reed didn't just "fall from grace" because he was in the wrong place at the wrong time. He was up to his eyeballs in the auctioning off of the federal government and there's proof of it.

And now McCain's going to an event "promoted" if not "hosted" by Ralph Reed, and it's wrong for Democrats to object to this, because McCain led an investigation of Abramoff after he was caught? Holmes seems to be under the impression that McCain's leading those investigations, instead of perhaps strongly approving of already-exposed government corruption, should inoculate him from charges of hypocrisy. Holmes would have us pay no mind to the fact that Reed really was intimately involved in the biggest public corruption scandal in years.

At other points, Holmes just lashes out at McCain's critics:

"Yet the Democrats jumped on the email..."
"The Democrats"? All of them?

"That didn't stop the Obama campaign from issuing a 'response' to the absence"
"Will those little jerks at the Obama campaign never be satisfied?!"

"Others took it as an assertion of his involvement with the campaign, going so far as to insinuate he was hosting the event."
Given that Reed sent out invitations to the event in his own name, you arguably have to go further to preserve the distinction between "promoting" and "hosting" than to conflate them. [Bonus points for referring to the guilty parties as unspecified "Others."]

"On Monday evening, there was no sign of Reed at the Marriott Marquis here and no mention of him by McCain during his remarks."
So... McCain's failure to acknowledge Reed's support is evidence he didn't get any? I think it just means he wants to downplay it now that he's taking criticism for it. Yes, especially given that Reed is sending emails/fundraising for him and is on his Victory 2008 team, I think the latter interpretation is more likely.

That just about covers it I guess. It's not as though the WSJ's Washington Wire garners a huge audience as far as I know, and that's all to the good, but it still carries a major news organization's brand and it's churns out more than its share of awful posts. This is just my nomination for the worst of the season so far.

Are you kidding me?

There's trouble in the Caucasus. The situation is "fluid and dangerous." You're John McCain. Who do you send?

That's right. Your personal backup singers, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham:


















That'll have Putin thinking long and hard about his next move.

Update:
Attaturk makes a good point, with the emphasis it deserves.

Bill Kristol's supposed "scoop"

Bill Kristol reported that Colin Powell was going to endorse Obama, and everyone went bonkers. Powell, sounding rather peeved, told ABC "I do not have time to waste on Bill Kristol's musings." A representative from his office made a slightly more direct denial, saying "There's no truth to it, no substance to it... I have no idea why Bill Kristol would be making this statement. There is no imminent endorsement."

Obviously, there's still ample wiggle room for Powell to do it (the endorsement anyway, not the convention speech), but now one of two things will happen:

1) Powell does endorse Obama, just not imminently, and the leak will have spoiled the surprise; or

2) Powell doesn't endorse Obama, and the leak will make it seem like more of a rejection than it would have otherwise.

It's certainly possible that Kristol really was just passing along what he heard from a source close enough to Powell to be considered reliable. Stranger things have happened. But for Bill Kristol, getting stuff wrong isn't just an occasional occurence. It's a way of life. Indeed, Kristol qualified his claim by saying an endorsement "is not an absolutely done deal, but these people are very confident..." So by his own account, he put the story out there without anything that could be called confirmation.

I just don't believe he would do this without regard for its political impact, and I don't believe he'd do it if he thought it would help Obama, which only leaves one option: He did it because Kristol's sounding the alarm early, whether or not he's right, is good for McCain.

In a sane world, this theory wouldn't make any sense because there would be strong disincentives for reporters/pundits to make terrible predictions. But as you can see from this January 2007 selection of Kristol's greatest misses on Iraq and this December 2007 announcement by the New York Times that they were hiring him as a regular columnist, it doesn't actually work that way.

Update:
To revise and extend, I was kind of kidding about the "proof" that IF Kristol would consider politics AND not wish to push the scales towards Obama THEN he must be doing it to help McCain. Obviously there are other things to consider. Professional considerations would really demand going public even if he thought on balance even a rumor of Powell support would give Obama a bump.

I just find the idea of Kristol being the media figure most closely connected to Colin Powell's inner circle even more farfetched then the idea that he's just hyping the story because he thinks it's possible and he wants to steal its thunder.

WTF, Russ?

Atrios gives the Wanker of the Day to Bob Kerrey, for calling John McCain "a known quantity" who "can deal with crisis."

Certainly a worthy selection, but I was disappointed to read less likely suspect Russ Feingold also lavishing centrist cred on the Republican nominee: "I think the guy calls 'em as he sees 'em, and as president would call 'em as he sees 'em" etc. etc.

Hey Russ, how about suiting up for the big game, huh? Maybe do what you can to help your party's nominee, rather than saying nice things about his opponent? I've never been a U.S. Senator so maybe I just don't fully understand the fraternal bonds between co-sponsors of campaign finance legislation. But how about next time you feel compelled to give a quote about what an honorable centrist John McCain is, you just keep your fucking mouth shut instead.

Ana Marie Cox can't stop, won't stop

Ana Marie Cox is smooshed against the filter at the bottom of the tank for John McCain. There's just no other way one could write something this absurd about his campaign's blog comment payola scheme.

"Yeah, rewarding supporters with points for being helpful to the campaign is really desperate. And giving people pre-written talking points to disseminate? Surely a sign of ideological bankruptcy."

Those two puckishly deployed hyperlinks go to:

1) A point system for Obama campaign volunteers for making calls and hosting meetings, as an overt Obama campaign volunteer and

2) the official Obama campaign "Fight the Smears" site that provides talking points to, well, do as its name suggests.

"From what I gather, the major objection to McCain's points-for-blogging scheme is that people actually receive something of some monetary value in exchange for their hard work, whereas Obama's volunteers simply bask in the glow of their smug self-satisfaction..."

Well... YES! And it's a solid objection. Does one have to be predisposed to dislike McCain to see the tawdriness of paying people to say nice things about him on websites as if there weren't a "Country First" beach towel in it for them?

I'm not exactly outraged about this or worried that it's going to move the needle in November, but how can you read about these shenanigans and think: Oh, look at those smug Obama supporters. Not getting keychains and shit for their boosterism and thinking they're so pure!

Her bottom line: "The question is whether the McCainiacs would be doing it anyway."

Oh, man. As a Swampland commenter points out, if they were going to write the stuff anyway, why would the McCain campaign give them prizes for doing it?

She's a true believer. I think if McCain wins he could do a lot worse for a press secretary. She would never flip like Scotty 2 Hotty.

Favorite fictional presidents: Windows to the soul

WSJ: McCain also reveals his favorite fictional president as Dennis Haysbert, who played President David Palmer—the first black president—on "24."

"You know, I hope that I and all Americans can be color-blind about any president," McCain said. Coincidentally, Obama selected an older white male as his favorite fictional president: Jeff Bridges in "The Contender."

A few points:

1) This is an excellent choice on Obama's part. The Contender is an underappreciated classic. I like to think that he's got an equivalent of Sam Elliott's character on his campaign, screaming about the necessity of digging up incriminating photos of John McCain with midgets or something...

2) Is it really "coincidental" that Obama's selection for favorite fictional president was an "older white male"? I mean Palmer was not the only conceivable black choice. There was Morgan Freeman in Deep Impact, Tommy "Tiny" Lister in The Fifth Element (or was that some galactic organization?)... but that's all I can come up with off the top of my head. It's not like a random grab in the pool of possible choices is likely to be non-white.

3) It was just brilliant for McCain to have gone with Palmer (both pro-diversity and a nod to his pro-torture base).

4) Jeff Bridges' President Evans was not "older" by presidential standards. He just looked like Jeff Bridges, who was 51 when the movie came out. That's much closer to Obama's age than McCain's.

They even mention Norman Hsu

The national attention to McCain's fundraising practices may be happening at an even faster pace than I had hoped. First McClatchy, now the Washington Post has a front page story "Bundler Collects From Unlikely Sources."

The generosity of Hess employees

As worrisome as some of the polling trends have been recently, I think there's a decent chance that, between the McCain camp's violations of campaign finance law that have already occurred, and the high likelihood of even more damaging violations coming to light, one of them might actually attract the notice of the national media and reach the level of scandal.

Today TPM has been doing work on the strange inflow of donations from Hess executives and employees after McCain's (not to be confused with Obama's) reversal on offshore drilling. Of particular interest to them are two donations of $28,500 each from a Hess-employed couple who apparently live in a rented apartment in Flushing, an area known more for its sports arenas than its concentration of high net worth individuals.

Sure, it seems so clumsy that you'd think there was no way the McCain campaign would try it. But politicians are never as circumspect as you'd think about this stuff. Remember Hillary bundler Norman Hsu and the three dozen Hill-raisers supposedly living in the same NorCal shanty?

It's not much to get excited about at this point, but I think of the campaign finance thing as a little call option or lottery ticket that may end up getting redeemed for the total implosion of John McCain's support.

Bob Herbert gives it to 'em straight

Spare me any more drivel about the high-mindedness of John McCain. You knew something was up back in March when, in his first ad of the general campaign, Mr. McCain had himself touted as “the American president Americans have been waiting for.”

Oh, indeed.