Previewing the NL East - Florida Marlins

Well I was going to look at the Phillies next, but the big news from yesterday is the Marlins' signing of Carlos Delgado; so without further ado let's take a premature, highly speculative gawk at the boys in teal:

Pitching

1. J. Beckett
2. A. Burnett
3. D. Willis
4. A. Leiter
5. I. Valdez

It's nice. Would it be nicer with Brad Penny in there? Sure, but when Al Leiter is your fourth starter it's hard to complain that he's not your fifth.

Beckett recently signed a 1-year extension for $2.4MM, which is a great price for 35 Josh Beckett starts: In his 430.1 career IP since his debut as a 21 year-old callup, he's fanned 441 batters. He's simply overpowering, and his K/BB ratios have improved each year, reaching a robust 2.8 in 2004.

Of serious concern is the recurring blister problem. It is beyond my comprehension how elbows can be reconstructed while blisters can't be prevented or at least quickly treated. Absurd, no? It could be construed as good news that Beckett set a career mark for starts (26) and innings (156.2) last year... but it really shouldn't be.

Speaking of injuries, two of them (both to his pitching elbow) limited A.J. Burnett to 120 innings last year, but in those innings he was at least as good if not better than Beckett.

2004 Burnett 120 IP, 102 H, 38 BB, 113 K, 9 HR, 3.68 ERA

If healthy, the B---etts should compete with Prior and Wood for best starting tandem in the National League.

Dontrelle Willis, whom I will always remember as the guy that stole Brandon Webb's Rookie of the Year award, appeared to take a step back last year. His strikeout numbers slipped considerably, resulting in more hit balls, base hits and runs allowed, and he gave up over 1 HR/9.

On the other hand, his walk rate did improve from his "ROY" campaign, and he pitched noticeably better after the All-Star break. Looking at the whole picture, it's time to drop my foolish grudge (but Webb's '03 was SO good!), and acknowledge that he's an emerging franchise pitcher.

Al Leiter requires no introduction in this space. I will say that while I'm not usually one to consider baseball transactions in terms of "loyalty" or "disloyalty," I was nonetheless disappointed that the front office lowballed Al with a $4MM "offer". I'm not suggesting that Omar should have approached the $10.3MM he got from the Marlins, but an offer lower than Benson's is just insulting, especially to your ace of seven years.

He won't pitch past the 6th very often, but he can still make hitters miss, and he'll turn over his share of leads to the bullpen. As for Ismael Valdez, the forecast calls for terrible.

Offense

1. J. Pierre
2. L. Castillo
3. M. Cabrera
4. C. Delgado
5. M. Lowell
6. P. LoDuca
7. J. Encarnacion
8. A. Gonzalez

It's hard looking at "the Delgado effect" on another team in the division.

I've never been especially impressed by the Florida offense, which ranked towards the bottom of the league in both On Base and Slugging percentages last year. Pierre and Castillo both hit for average and have excellent speed, but only Castillo takes the occasional base and they're both as light-hitting as they come. Of their combined 385 hits last season, 327 (85 percent!) were singles.

The breaking out of Miguel Cabrera has been a sight to behold. The secret is out, so I'll save the hyperbole and stick to the facts: He hit 294/366/512 with 33 homers and 112 RBI at the age of 21.

Third baseman Mike Lowell has been a model of consistency over his career. He has yet to put up an unsightly line over a full season, and he's been named to the last three All-Star teams... but he still falls outside that group of hitters who could be described as "fearsome."

Paul LoDuca is a fine catcher, but his perceived value significantly exceeds his actual production. He is among the top 6 or 7 catchers in the league, but his much vaunted leadership and "intangibles" are just not enough to make that deal a winner for the Fish. As I hinted earlier, I believe Larry Beinfest would have been better off just holding on to both Hee Seop Choi and Brad Penny. No one seems to have noticed how good Choi was for the Marlins last year (his 883 OPS led the team).

The bottom of the order remains a black hole. In 561 ABs last year, Alex Gonzalez posted a downright humiliating .270 OBP. Incredibly, it did not significantly lower his career mark, which, as he enters his age 28 season, stands at 287. Meanwhile, Juan Encarnacion simply should not be starting in any major league outfield.

Finally: Who is Chris Resop?