Previewing the NL East - Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves
Team Motto: "In Leo Veritas"

Pitching

1. T. Hudson
2. J. Thomson
3. J. Smoltz
4. H. Ramirez
5. M. Hampton

If Leo Mazzone can get Jaret Wright and John Thomson to keep the ball down and on the corners, what should we expect from Tim Hudson next year? Well if I were Bobby Cox, I would make a point of reminding my infielders when Huddy's starting, because there will be groundballs aplenty. One-hoppers, two-hoppers, little dribblers down the third base line, non-fly balls of every persuasion.

Regardless of the defensive configuration behind them, the rotation is unquestionably improved for addition of Hudson, the most reliable member of the now defunct Big Three. What they lost in Ortiz and Wright were really just two balls of clay which only Leo Mazzone, it seems, could mold into the likeness of quality starters.

Much is riding on the conversion of John Smoltz back to the starting rotation. I get the feeling I'm in the minority, but given his performance as a closer I don't know why it's so hard to picture a season fairly similar to his 1998...

1998 J. Smoltz = 167.2 IP 145H 10HR 44BB 173K 2.90 ERA

Smoltz won 17 decisions that year and lost three, so I don't expect a repeat of the record, but I'm not convinced that his stuff is any less effective now that he's 6 years and 1 elbow surgery older. If he avoids major injury, those innings look about right. This is what his line as a starter would look like if he pitched like he did last year:

2004 J. Smoltz in same innings = 167.2IP 155H 17HR 27BB 176K 2.76 ERA

I'm not calling that latter scenario likely, but nor do I simply recall the likes of Danny Graves and (yes, Mr. DePodesta) Derek Lowe and conclude that a smooth switch to or back to the rotation isn't possible. Yes he turns 38 in May, and hasn't started a game since I was a college freshman, but he's been so dominant in relief! A 6.5 K/BB ratio means that some hitters are literally soiling themselves right there in the batters box, often before his first pitch.

Mazzone and Cox should be disciplined enough to take care of him and pull him from home games over the boos of the crowd. If they just can get 6 innings from him 25 times, they'll probably stop calling John Thomson their number 2 starter.

The bullpen is an undistinguished lot, ostensibly led by Danny Kolb, the world's most dominant batting practice pitcher. I owned Kolb on my rotisserie team last year, and I didn't regret it one bit. Closers' value is tied almost solely to their SV totals, and he got lots of saves. But mercy, he wasn't fooling ANYBODY.

I won't get into the ugly details; let it just be said that at one point he had more saves than strikeouts. His ERA was largely a function of defense and luck, as a mere 25% of the many, many Kolb pitches hit into play were base hits. That's incredibly unlikely to happen again (that number trends towards 30% for all pitchers).

In fairness, he can be counted on to keep the ball in the park, but either he starts missing some bats or the Braves may start missing Juan Cruz (sent to Oakland in the Hudson deal) more than they thought. Grybowski, Reitsma, Gabe White and Will Cunnane fill out the pen.

Offense

1. R. Furcal
2. M. Giles
3. C. Jones
4. A. Jones
5. J. Estrada
6. R. Mondesi
7. A. Laroche
8. B. Jordan/Andy Marte

Offensively, the Braves are noticeably weaker in the heart of the lineup for the loss of J.D. Drew, but needless to say this lineup lost Gary Sheffield the year before, and still managed to cobble together another division title.

• Furcal put together another nice year in 2004, improving his walk rate despite some small declines from '03, and this will be his Age 26 year.

• I consider Giles a frontrunner for the All-Star team and expect him to break out a 25HR-2oSB season, provided he manages to avoid another massive collision in the field.

• Chipper "Laaaaaarrrrryyyyy" Jones should move back to the outfield, but regardless of where he's playing he'll do his hitting. Something on the order of 310/410/510 would be my guess, with 30-35 homers. Last year was an aberration. He's 32, not 36. Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

• Andruw Jones is an interesting case: incredibly consistent at a young age, but showing no signs of improvement on his weaknesses. Write him down in pen for 30 HR (ok he hit 29 last year), 100 RBI, and a BA of .270. He first did it at age 21!, but each subsequent season has just been a slight variation on that theme. It's not a bad theme, mind you, but when your record in your early 20s calls to mind Sammy Sosa with more power, the "MVP-type" goods should have been delivered by now. Isn't there a personal trainer who could help poor Andruw? Maybe a trainer with connections in the Bay Area and known for his or her discretion?... What? I was just wondering.

• Johnny Estrada was one of the big stories of 2004. Having been acquired, straight-up I believe, for Kevin Millwood, the word on the street was that Braves GM John Schuerholz had simply thrown up his hands in frustration and said "Fine. Estrada. Now take Millwood's contract and leave me the f--- alone!" His public comments ("this system stinks", etc.) also gave the impression that he felt violated by the trade of a reputable and once valuable starter for the Phil's backup backstop. As the story turns out, however, Millwood was alternately injured and ineffective for Larry Bowa's squad (you can imagine how much fun that was), while Estrada kinda hit the piss out of the ball, posting a 314/378/450 line. That was it, I expect, and by "it" I mean his career year, the highwater mark of his life as a ballplayer. He turns 29 in June, and his year has some of the telltale signs of flukiness. But he still established himself as a very valuable catcher, and bears watching in 2005. I just wanted to make clear that the last of the "Estrada for MVP" rumors has long since floated.

• The Braves will be featuring an outfield of once exciting, high-upside players, but in the case of Brian Jordan the excitement peaked in 1993, when at 26 he showed some power and speed in a longish cup of coffee (223 AB). Since leaving the Braves after a very successful 2001 campaign (295/334/496 in 560 AB), he's been getting his steady decline on, landing with a thud in the year 2005, about to turn 38 and really in no position to help a playoff team.

• Top prospect Andy Marte really should break camp as the team's starting 3B. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA forecasting system likes him enough to project 263/348/479, for an 827 OPS. That would be tremendous. Not really in David Wright's class, but a good bet to stay in the ROY race all season. From the Braves' standpoint, it also has the benefit of moving Chipper in and Jordan out of that outfield, improving their infield (if not outfield) defense in the process.