Milledge gets the call

Sorry for the long hiatus. A lot has happened since my last post.

The trade of J. Julio for O. Hernandez is a little bit frustrating. I never quite came around on Julio, despite the legitimately impressive peripherals he posted in his fairly limited workload with the Mets. But El Duque hasn't been good for a very long time, and may not even represent an improvement over John Maine. And Dave Williams? I mean really.

It's early yet, but a substantive move still needs to be made. Steve Trachsel needs to be made our fourth starter. I'm not sure what will be available, especially since so far this season there appear to be an unusual number of contending teams. That's a bad thing for the Mets, both because the NL East is a good example of that parity and because it makes for fewer sellers come the trade deadline.

With Xavier Nady placed on the DL, Lastings Milledge made his debut with the big club tonight, going 1-4 with a double. He hit the ball hard in his first plate appearance, but right at Hanley Ramirez at short. I wasn't expecting him to be up so soon, but he may be ready.

Monday night's game was incredibly entertaining. Aaron Heilman's worst outing of the season almost cost the Mets the game, but Reyes, Lo Duca and Wright came up big in the bottom of the 9th to win it.

Beltran is more animal than man

I have to go to bed. It's 12:15 AM on Wednesday, and they're in the bottom of the 15th at Shea.

Darren Oliver is taking his cuts at the plate, for the simple reason that he's last man standing in the bullpen. The Mets had the lead until Heilman gave up two in the seventh, but then tied on a Reyes three-run homer.

Ryan Madson entered the game in the ninth inning and has now thrown six innings of shutout ball, which he never did as a starter that I can recall.

Tomorrow Alay Soler (a "Cuban defect" to quote Darling) gets his chance to do his thing. My totally speculative prediction: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. He'll be opposed by Cole Hamels, who has been a big name prospect for a long time (delayed by sports and fight-related injuries) but is still four years younger than Soler.

Lo Duca just hosed Chase Utley at second base in the top of the 16th, which sounds heroic, but he's still got some making up to do for the ball he dropped at home plate.

In case the play doesn't get included in the recap, Shane Victorino hit a single to right field on which Pat Burrell tried to score from second. Endy Chavez threw an absolute seed to home plate, and it was pretty obvious that Burrell was dead to rights for the third out, but Lo Duca booted it and David Bell promptly cleared the bases.

All is forgiven! Beltran! Walkoff homer! Ballgame.

Bonne nuit chers lecteurs.

Weekend postmortem

Mike & Mike on ESPN are talking about the criticism of Willie Randolph for bringing Wagner into a non-Save situation. The Mike who isn't Mike Golic opined that it's absolutely ridiculous to blame the manager for his reliever's failure to preserve a four run lead, and it's even more stupid to do for the sole reason that even if he had preserved the lead, it wouldn't have qualified as a Save. He calls the Save rule "one of the dumbest stats in baseball."

Every once in a while, even elite Closers have really bad days. Do they hurt? Absolutely, and it's much worse because they're usually really highly paid and you always suspect that they've lost the Closer's Mentality. But the reason you get an elite Closer is because the meltdowns are so few and far between, and most nights it's 1-2-3 game over. In any case, I can't be convinced that the reason Wagner blew it is because he was so mentally thrown off by the score differential.

Let's just call Saturday's game "unlucky" and move on to Sunday's game, which was lucky. Really, really lucky.

The Yankees left 28 runners on base. The bags were juiced like... like something or someone that's juiced. I can't think of a topical analogy.

The Mets' combined pitching line: 9 IP, 12 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 6 K. It makes me wonder if maybe this was an elaborately conceived tribute to fallen comrade Brian Bannister. If you change the order of the Yankees' offensive events (double, groundout, etc.) ever so slightly, we lose 6-4.

Our offense, on the other hand, scored four runs on seven hits. That's what power hitting, in the persons of Delgado and Wright, can do for a team.

In the last three innings, all three of Heilman, Sanchez, and Wagner looked a little bit shaky. But Wagner struck out two while throwing 15 of 21 pitches for strikes. I think there's hope for him yet.

NYM 7 - NYY 6

At first it looked like the game would be a lost cause. There aren't many pitchers who can be counted on to hold the Yankees in check, and Jeremi Gonzalez sure isn't one of them. As could be expected, that other N.Y. team beat him soundly about the face and chest.

But in the bottom of the first, Carlos Beltran launched a three-run homer off the suddenly awful Randy Johnson, and the battle was joined.

The bullpen has been incredible. Oliver righted the ship in the fourth and fifth, Heilman pitched three perfect innings, and Wagner struck out the side in the top of the ninth. Good job by Willie bringing him into a tie game.

Kaz Matsui's ribbie single was huge. I wish I hadn't just looked at his numbers and seen that it only raised his OPS to .605. Apparently he was due. At least he's been playing good D.

The bottom of the ninth was a thing of beauty. Torre decision to pitch to Wright instead of Delgado is hard to argue with. Both hitters have pronounced platoon splits this year, and Delgado's been slightly more beastly overall. But Wright is still so damn good!

Just a great win.

***

In other news, I just saw the clip of Michael Barrett punching A.J. Pierzynski in the face. I mean he really got him good. Having heard and read my share of Pierzynski quotes, I wouldn't be surprised if he had it coming. Square on the jaw. Suspension city.

Bannister injured

Help is no longer on the way. Brian Bannister left his rehab start after injuring his leg. It's not completely clear from the article whether it's an aggravation of his original injury, but it sounds that way. It also doesn't sound good. He'll undergo an MRI tomorrow.

Assistant GM John Ricco is quoted:

"We don't know if he did more damage or if he just wasn't ready to come back. He felt some tightness and took himself out of the game... It could be that he was just being cautious and the muscle needs to get used to stretching again."

I guess that could be the case, but there is not a long tradition of pitchers removing themselves from games purely for the sake of caution. There's usually an injury of some sort preventing them from pitching without excruciating pain.

Apparently he "tweaked" the leg five pitches into the game, covering a play at first. That he wasn't injured in the regular course of pitching helps alleviate the suspicion that he may have been put back in action too soon, but it doesn't erase it entirely. Come to think of it, covering first could be considered part of the regular course of pitching, but to paraphrase Ivan Drago: "If it's blown, it's blown."

Meanwhile in St. Louis, the Cardinals took the rubber game of the series without any help from the Best Hitter in Baseball.

Submitted for your approval, my best guess as to LaRussa's thought process:

Let's see, when should I give Phat Albert a day off? Hmmm.... Glavine? No, probably need him for that game... Trachsel? Eh, ya never know.... ah-HA! Friday is "Lima Time," as the locals call it! Rest easy, slugger. We'll be just fine.

I know it was a day game after a series of night games, and LaRussa probably doesn't think of him as "Phat" Albert, but the reasoning makes sense.

Sure enough, J-Loss gave up five runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings. Even .378 slugger Aaron Miles got a taste.

With Bannister on the shelf for probably weeks, at least, the Braintrust has to do something. One of the rules of thumb I think makes sense for a GM is to ask of every player under consideration: "Is this player going to be on our next championship team?" I think it's time to ask that of Lastings Milledge.

For all my criticisms of Mets management, I have been confident from the outset that the talent on our current roster is good enough to win it all. Unfortunately, so much attention has been given to the bullpen that the back of the rotation has gone neglected. It would be a concern even if this rash of injuries hadn't taken place.

The only rumor I've heard involves Dontrelle Willis. I'm not the biggest fan of the D-Train, but I think we need to get a good, if not excellent, starter. And I think we need to do it soon. It has nothing to do with his recent slump, but I think that in this legitimately "win now" situation, Milledge is a reasonable price to pay for such a pitcher.

Anyway a few highlights from today's game: Beltran and Valentin both went deep. The latter has pulled his batting line up from the depths faster than I expected. As a matter of fact, I didn't expect it at all. I called for his job, and I maintain that he's not much of an asset. But now he's at that .750 OPS level where it's hard to demand much more from a part time player. Here's hoping the old boy keeps it up.

Pedro Feliciano got four clean outs, and has still only allowed one run in 12.1 innings, with great peripherals. That's the kind of performance you can eke out of relief pitchers. Maybe he'll be the left-handed Roberto Hernandez. Sure, maybe not, but this front office needs to learn that getting quality starts isn't nearly as easy, and as things stand now they're going to be in relatively short supply.

Mets almost score a run, but don't

The Mets loaded the bases in the ninth, but Jason Isringhausen struck out Wright and induced a Cliff Floyd grounder to first to preserve the Cardinals' 1-0 win.

Since Cliffy was batting an even .200 going into his final at bat, we'll continue to hear about his being "on the interstate" for at least another game. I understand the "Mendoza line" has fallen out of favor, but let's ease the new term into usage gradually, huh fellas?

As Cohen and Darling pointed out, Trachsel's performance was reassuring to say the least. The peripherals weren't great, but that's not an easy lineup to hold to one run. It has Albert Pujols in it.

Unfortunately, Mark Mulder was a little bit better. The ninth inning wasn't just the Mets' best opportunity, it was pretty much their only opportunity. I'm starting to realize that I had been thinking too little of Mulder. His ability to elicit ground balls is for real, and more than makes up for his unimpressive strikeout numbers.

In any event, he dominated our boys tonight, but at least we ended up taking game one eventually (I was fast asleep by the time that ended). And while it would have been nice to see him given a little bit of offense, Steve Trachsel gave us another taste of his intoxicating brand of adequacy.

I guess it's a little early to really pay too much attention to the horse race, but all the same: Philly lost to the Brewers, keeping them 1.5 games back for the time being.

Tomorrow Jose Lima gets his third start of the season. For the record, I do not care one whit how he pitches tomorrow. It needs to be his last appearance in a Mets uniform. He's a disaster in a hurry to happen.

To be continued?

Not long after suffering a rain-shortened loss in Philadelphia, it appears the Mets are going to be denied a rain-shortened victory in St. Louis.

Because the Mets took the lead in the top of the seventh inning, they can't be awarded the game until the Cardinals get their ups. If that doesn't happen tonight, it will have to be continued later (presumably tomorrow), and played to completion.

This rule, besides being highly inconvenient for the Mets tonight, seems a little bit stupid. I can see the unfairness of one team getting more chances to score than the other. But if a game gets shortened in any way, by definition the losing team is being denied the opportunity to come back. What difference does it make how long they've been losing for?

Jose Reyes was having a great game, not only homering but walking and stealing second in the seventh. He then scored the go-ahead run as Lo Duca delivered a timely double. It was really good to see.

***

Toby Hyde at Mets Minors isn't having this Mike Pelfrey nonsense:

"The absurd hype surrounding Mike Pelfrey in the NYC media continues unabated... Pelfrey has thrown 43.2 minor league innings so far. Were the Mets to bring him up in June, he’d almost certainly be shy of 100 in his first professional season. Right now, Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 4.15 ERA in AA. In 21.2 IP, he’s allowed 30 hits, walked nine and struck out 24. He’s not exactly rolling through the Eastern League. When he starts shoving down there, that’s the time to talk about a promotion to AAA."

I'd definitely agree that it's too soon to call up Pelfrey. But my objection would be primarily on the low innings totals alone. I'd like to see him get some more innings that don't count (unless you happen to be a huge Binghamton fan), before giving him ones that do.

Nonetheless, those 43.2 innings have been pretty outstanding. He's given up runs, but not many, struck out 50, walked 11 and surrendered just one home run (at St. Lucie). So while I do think some patience is called for, it's hard not to suspect that he is, even at his tender age, at worst the 5th best starting pitcher in the organization.

Relief pitchers are like cigarettes...

At some point, even the lucky ones get smoked.

Jeremi Gonzalez turned in a serviceable five innings on Saturday. He did give home runs to the dynamic young duo of Weeks and Fielder, but it wasn't a disaster.

Had scoreless inning machine Duaner Sanchez not surrendered a whopping four runs in 0.1 IP, it would have been a pretty easy win. I hope it (the sudden fallibility) doesn't jar his psyche too badly, but it was bound to happen sometime.

The Mets hit Dana Eveland hard, as you'd hope they would. Beltran went 3-5 with a 3R HR, and only Chris Woodward went O-fer.

As it happened, Paul Lo Duca had to take matters into his own hands with a game winning (but unfortunately non-walkoff) solo homer off Turnbow.

After double-checking the rulebook to make sure the conditions for a Save were satisfied, Randolph put Billy Wagner in to pitch a three-strikeout ninth.

Let's see, what happened yesterday... Pedro struck out 10 but gave up four runs, and Bill Hall ended up winning the game for the Brewers in the first extra frame.

So we split the weekend, which isn't that bad but it cost us another game to the Phillies, who just swept the offensively loaded Reds. Yesterday they won 2-1 on a pair of Ryan Howard homers, and are now just one game astern.

That's it. Just a kind of getting up-to-speed post more than anything else.

***

Joe Sheehan at BP($) , a Yankee fan, tears Scott Erickson to shreds. A Mets-related excerpt:

What do you think it’s like for a guy like Heath Bell, who
has pitched well in Triple-A for a while now, and intermittently well at the
major-league level, to get sent down whenever he has consecutive bad appearances
while watching Scott Erickson making three hundred grand again on nothing but
wishes?

I agree that Bell has been given a ridiculously short leash. And even though Sheehan establishes beyond much doubt that Erickson is even less deserving of a roster spot than say Lima or Gonzalez (he's been unbelievably bad), I think the point applies to them too.

The nameless one gets shelled again

The failed reclamation project managed to (barely) avoid trouble for four innings, before blowing the Mets' modest lead in spectacular fashion. The home run he gave up to Prince Fielder was an absolute blast, measured at 478 feet. No word yet whether the showing will precipitate another change of hairstyles.

When I heard the Lastings Milledge for Dontrelle Willis trade rumor, I just thought about how not-worth-it Willis is. He's young, and certainly someone who would slot in ahead of Steve Trachsel, but the declining strikeout rates raise legitimate concerns that hitters have gotten used to his delivery.

Meanwhile Lastings Milledge has started to really look good. He still only has three homers in 124 at-bats, which is light, but he just turned 21 in April, and has a .436 OBP in Triple-A. I'm on the bandwagon.

But what if a really good starter becomes available? (If you feel strongly that Dontrelle is really good, then use him as the example.) I think Omar would have to pull the trigger. I think this is the team which he should be willing to sacrifice the future in order to improve. It's a contender for sure.

As a group, Mets pitchers have been the best in the league. The Cardinals recently passed us in ERA, but the other numbers are downright freakish for team averages.

Unfortunately, the distribution of the performance matters, and when it gets later in the season and time to contend in the playoff sense, they're going to need a bigger boat. Not just the return of the guys who are currently injured, but the arrival of someone better. I don't think this can be dismissed as pessimism. I think we have good reason to be uneasy that for the forseeable future, 40% of the Mets' starts are going to be started by Gonzalez and you-know-who.

Of course, maybe I should go easy on Gonzalez, who hasn't actually done any bad pitching this year (yet), and focus on Heath Bell, who was kind of a key component of my ever-evolving Master Plan to Fix the Mets. He got smacked around again last night. Sometimes I have to remind myself that it is possible to give up zero walks and still do a crummy job. The hits will get you, too.

Billy Wagner pitched the bottom of the eighth, just because it had been so damn long. I know it's necessary to get him some work, but his appearance in last night's blowout, after being kept in the pen through some crucial innings in Philly, was just a monument to Willie Randoph's incompetence.

Things got moderately exciting in the top of the ninth, as the Mets tagged Danny Kolb and Rickie Weeks made one of the most hideous plays I've ever seen a second baseman make. Kaz Matsui came to the plate as the tying run, and Ned Yost finally had to bring in the hard-throwing (and unconventionally stylish) Derrek Turnbow to retire him.

Getting it off my chest

Jeremi Gonzalez has been pitching well in Triple-A. He's struck out 30, walked nine, and only surrendered one home run in 35.2 innings, with an ERA of 3.03. That's the good news.

The bad news is this isn't a prospect we're talking about. Gonzalez is a 31 year-old journeyman with a career ERA of 4.84 over 516 innings, most recently with the Red Sox but before that the Devil Rays and, in a former life ('97-'98), the Cubs.

Are there raw skills there that he never managed to harness in his twenties? The career 5.4 K/9 doesn't suggest as much.

Maybe there's more hope to be found in his minor league record. And what a record it is. Since making his professional debut in 1992, Gonzalez has logged no fewer than 818 innings in the minor leagues. Feel free to peruse the results over at the Cube (you may have to scroll depending on your screen resolution).

As you can see, his cumulative minor league ERA is 4.06. Though the highlights are few and far between, he was very good in 69 innings at Pawtucket last year. As for his 56 innings with the Sox? Not so much.

With all due respect to Mr. Gonzalez, who clearly loves the game and makes a good living at it: this is what the very bottom of the barrel looks like. Wondering whether he or Lima is the No. 4 starter is just no fun at all.

I don't mean to sound alarmist, and I'm not abandoning hope for the season or anything like that. We have a great offense, two of the top 10 starters and the best bullpen in baseball.

That bullpen also happens to include an excellent pitcher who had been a starter for pretty much his whole career. But Willie doesn't want to risk turning a strength into a weakness by giving Heilman the damn ball. Nor does he want to bring his closer into a tie game on the road, but I've already been over that (it still drives me nuts though, especially after his postgame comments confirmed my worst fears about his "philosophy.")

Anyway I think the writing is on the wall for a sooner-than-planned Mike Pelfrey callup, and that's something that I'm pretty excited about. It's not like he's 18 or anything, he's 22. As a matter of fact, he's a few weeks older than Scott Kazmir, just to pick a successful young pitcher at random.

... In other news, the Mets crushed Cory Lidle and the Phillies last night. Glavine turned in his first workmanlike (as opposed to spectacular) performance in a while, which was more than enough for the offense. As a rule, when just about everyone has two hits and Reyes goes deep, the odds of a W are high.

Straight Flushing fave Health Bell finally got a big league appearance, giving up a run on three hits. He did get two strikeouts however, on what looked like pretty effective breaking stuff.

Willie being Willie

That was a bit of a heartbreaker.

The game shouldn't have ended that way. For one thing, Heilman obviously should have let Lo Duca take that tapper in front of the plate. It didn't look like Lo Duca was as aggressive as he should have been in calling him off, but he did try and Heilman should have known how hard it would be to make the throw.

For another, once Heilman hit Rollins he should have been pulled. The pitch wasn't all that far inside, but it was enough to suggest he might not have his A-game. With that in mind, here is Chase Utley's platoon split from last season:

vs LHP: .219/.348/.469 in 128 AB
vs RHP: .313/.385/.561 in 415 AB

So Heilman walks Utley, bringing up Bobby Abreu. Here's his 2005 split:

vs LHP: .275/.353/.406 in 207 AB
vs RHP: .291/.430/.561 in 381 AB

Where is Billy Wagner? Bottom of the 9th of a tie game. Bases loaded. Two outs. Our left-handed, elite closer hasn't pitched since Friday.

Maybe Will Carroll is right about Wagner hiding a finger injury, because it's pretty much the only legitimate excuse for not using him in that situation. It's so simple: fail to retire Abreu, and you lose. Clearly you want to maximize the odds of getting him out, not the odds of seeing "Wagner (S, 8)" in the box score.

You would think in this day and age that the Save would have been more thoroughly demystified as nothing but a highly arbitrary measure of reliever performance. It's about the least informative "primary" statistic in the game. Wins and losses are practically useless as well, but they do little if any harm in terms of changing the way the game is played. Tonight I think we saw Closer orthodoxy actually make a team worse.

Unhappy ending aside, it was a damn entertaining game. Pedro struck out 10 in seven innings, but allowed all three runs in a bad second inning. Brett Myers was dominant for seven plus innings, until Nady finally got to him for a line drive two-run homer. Carlos Delgado then launched a second one against Tom Gordon to tie it up.

It may have been a poorly managed game from the Mets' standpoint, but it was pretty well played.

Money well spent

Carlos Beltran wasn't good last season. There's no need to rehash it here. Suffice it to say that he was a page after Jason LaRue on the list of NL hitters by VORP. It was enough to make people either forget about his 2004 or conclude that Shea Stadium is such a miserable place to hit that there's no way he'll ever do anything like it as a Met.

To review: In 2004, Beltran hit 38 regular season home runs. Because of the seemingly pointless custom of restarting the counting-stat odometer at zero when a player switches teams midseason, it never really got presented as a 38 home run season (even ESPN's player page makes you do the math). But that's what it was. He also stole 42 bases while only getting caught three times, extending his lead in career SB%, which as far as I know he still holds.

Then came the postseason, when in 46 AB he hit .435/.536/1.022, with a record 8 home runs. This did not go unnoticed, nor did the fact that he would be a free agent at the end of the season. The "contract year" theory gets an awful lot of run, I think in large part because it appeals to our natural jealousy of millionaire ballplayers.

In any case when Omar signed Beltran to such a massive contract, a lot of the mainstream commentary was focused on how much Carlos had profited financially from his incredible October. While it undoubtedly boosted his market price, so too must have his calendar year totals at age 27: 46 home runs and 50 steals in 646 at-bats.

So what happened? Disastrously little. His debut in New York was worse than I would have thought possible. I think it's safe to say we all remember it, and felt our emotions go from confusion to frustration, with a brief layover at rage on the way to despair.

The skeptics had warned us that Shea Stadium isn't as hitter friendly as Kansas City or Houston. We knew he had a leg injury, and smashed heads with Cameron, but how could we be sure that that was the only problem. And even if it was, would he ever fully recover?

As I pointed out at the time late last season, Mike and the Mad Dog took to speaking of Beltran as a "role player," who was not the marquee talent that had been advertised and paid for. The high expectations themselves were blamed for the lack of performance. "He can't play in New York" was the consensus in the New York media (it's obvious how much pride they take in the city's powers of intimidation).

They were right in that he wasn't playing well in New York, but it was and always will be patently ridiculous to suggest that Beltran didn't deserve to be considered a franchise player in the first place, and that 2005 was just his forseeable regression to the "good" player he had been all along. But what's this we see in the 2006 row? It looks like a .286/.441/.671 line. He seems to have eight homers and four steals.

Maybe, just maybe, the four years before he came to New York are a better reflection of his abilities than his first year with the Mets. Maybe a few years from now we'll find it hard to believe he ever got booed at Shea.

Jose Lima: Plan 9 From Outer Space

Watching the Braves score over a dozen runs at Shea is always a bummer. It's somehow made worse by the fact that they were aided and abetted by a total washout with a platinum afro; one whom a championship-caliber team really shouldn't have to run out to the mound.

I suspect that Lima's colorful personality is part of the reason why he's been allowed to give up 64 HR the last two years. At this point in his career, he's Eric Milton-light.

Bartolome Fortunato then made a compelling argument for Heath Bell's callup, surrendering 8 runs in 1.1 IP.

Jeff Francoeur paced the Atlanta offense, as he continues to hit the Mets very hard. He came within a double of the cycle.

Runs 6 through 13 didn't make too much of a difference, of course, as John Smoltz was in top form. This was probably to be expected. They must have been a little "hungrier" than the Mets to save some face, and this is sort of what happens when you match Atlanta's ace with "Lima Time" (a phrase which I don't get and isn't funny and lends brand recognition to a guy who hasn't deserved it for years).

It's just one game, but it's a good time to point out why people like myself hated the Seo and Benson trades. All 162 games counts equally, and that as important as it is to have a Pedro Martinez making 30-plus starts, it's also important not to have a Jose Lima making more than five or six. "Replacement level" is just another term for really terrible pitching. I know Benson was terrible today too, but that doesn't make the decision any better.

A lot of fans rush to Omar's defense by pointing out how flukish it is that Zambrano, Bannister, Iriki and Maine are all hurt. That's true, but why are any of those guys slated to start ahead of Aaron Heilman in the first place? They're not even the best of what's around after the trades for Sanchez and Julio.

On the bright side, Carlos Beltran has now homered in three straight games, bringing his total for the season to eight (where he's tied with a whooole bunch of people). It's starting to look more and more like people,were a little quick to dismiss his chances at superstardom.

Oh, and the Mets are 21-10.

Beating the Braves is like crack to me

I won't bother recapping last night's game, partly because you can get a thorough and properly AP-styled account of it here, and also because I didn't see the last two hours or so.

When I left it was 6-6 and Heilman was just about to enter the game. As an aside, I find his face really odd-looking, and the low lighting in the bullpen makes him look like some sort of unfinished golem, kept in total darkness and seclusion until his services are required.

Anyway, when I got back home, after midnight (I'm something of a party animal), Billy Wagner was addressing the media and explaining how shocked he was to have surrendered a particular home run.

His remarks and his body language suggested that the Mets had lost, which was disappointing. What was only slightly less disappointing was that our boys had in fact pulled it out in a marathon 14 inning game, and I missed it.

At some point in the middle innings, Keith Hernandez incorrectly described Xavier Nady as 25 years old. Would it were so! He's 27, which is a big enough difference to make me wonder how much homework Keith is doing. It may sound nitpicky, but not only is that two fewer years he has left on his, um, biological clock, but at "peak age" he also faces much longer odds of improving substantially from his current level of production. Mind you, there's nothing at all wrong with his current level of production (.918 OPS). I'm just saying that if he were 25 we probably couldn't have gotten him for Mike Cameron.

I never thought I would ever look at a line of .268/.336/.409 and think "now that's what I'm talking about!" But Jose Reyes is a unique situation, and the stakes are extremely high for a few reasons:

1) As last year proved, he will be our leadoff hitter come hell or high water. If he doesn't improve on his career .306 OBP, we're just going to have to eat all those outs.

2) As one of the very fastest men in baseball, he gets more leverage from his OBP, not only by stealing bases but stretching triples, scoring from 1st, etc.

3) Even if you reject the notion that a player "is who he is," and that there's little you can do to transform a free swinger into Kevin Youkilis, Reyes is still so young that I think it's definitely a little bit surprising how much he appears to have changed already.

Is it too early to declare him fully cured of hackatitis C? I guess so, but he's already about halfway to his 2005 walk total. There's nowhere to go but up.

Today's game is just getting underway, and I've realized that in-game blogging is not my core competency, so I'm going to sign off for the moment... Maybe make some eggs... I am the worst case scenario of Dan Rather's vision.

Update

Wow. Cohen just made the observation that seeing as how last night's game ran so late, today's game could be influenced by the recently imposed ban on amphetamines. It's an entirely reasonable point, but not one that you necessarily expect an employee of an MLB team to make on the broadcast. Hernandez then agreed that this would be the kind of game where players would have been inclined to "go to the jar." Good stuff.

Tom Glavine is the new Johan Santana

Ten (10) strikeouts in seven shutout innings. Un-bleeping-believable.

David Wright went 4-5, bringing his average back over .300. In his postgame comments, Willie Randolph acknowledged that Wright had been in a little bit of a "funk," but didn't want to characterize it "as a slump per se, because I don't really believe in slumps." I had been under the impression that funks were similar if not identical to slumps, but that's why they pay Willie the big bucks.

The Mets were not the only NL East team to complete a two game "sweep" tonight, the Phillies beat the Braves behind Cory Lidle and Ryan Howard, moving to 14-14. At this point, I don't know who to root for between these two teams. I picked the Braves to finish second in the division, but they have looked bad so far.

Meanwhile the Phillies' underperformance is a perennial storyline but their lineup is undeniably impressive, and people still haven't taken notice of Brett Myers. I've heard multiple commentators refer to Lieber as the ace of the staff without qualification. Lieber's been better than his ERA, but Myers is in the league's top 15 in both ERA and strikeouts, and I think he has a good chance to stay there.

Speaking of (once) young pitchers, I don't mind Ron Darling as an announcer, but he needs to stop bringing up how terrible he was as a rookie. The first time I found it self-deprecating, but he's brought it up three times now, that I've heard, and it's starting to sound more and more like his sly way of referring to his successful playing career by focusing on his uninspired (but not horrible, actually) debut. Maybe he's still embarrassed at having walked 104 batters when he was 23, but a) that would be kind of weird, and b) it took him 205.7 innings to do it, which is more than Victor Zambrano can say for his 2003.

I hate to do this, but now that the topic of Zambrano has been broached, I feel not tempted as much as compelled to put a link to Scott Kazmir and suggest that it's time for the remaining defenders of this deal to totally capitulate and admit that it was stupid, if not in writing than simply in the deepest recess of their poor misguided souls. Only then will I be willing to "let it go," as several bloggers have intimated is the most reasonable course of action. Forget that. I'm talking about drawing a line in the sand here, dude.

Incredibly annoying, constantly-aired ad du jour: the Michael Moore anti-smoking PSA. At first I assumed it was a very good imitation of Moore, but it's actually he.

Our new first baseman is much better than his predecessors

I attended tonight's game in person. Well, I attended the first three innings in person. I didn't think to bring a jacket, and was cold to begin with, and then it started to rain. It was pretty miserable, so my girlfriend and I went back home to watch from the warmth of our Brooklyn apartment. Plus I had only ponied up $5 each for the upper "reserved" seats, so the sunk cost was minimal.

Once again, Pedro really did it to 'em. The home run he gave up to Freddy Sanchez in the first was crushed, right into a strong headwind, but that has been the extent of the Pirate offense to date. 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. He will get a no decision, which tells you how significant a pitcher's record is.

Endy Chavez is having an incredible game. He just made a downright shocking play in shallow right center field. On the replay he comes from completely out of the frame to make the diving catch on what probably shouldn't even have been his ball. I had said earlier that it would take some superheroic defense to make up for his bat. Well that was the kind of play a mutant would make, and he's also 4-5 with two doubles.

Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez were both outstanding, again. Heilman lowered his ERA to 2.3o, and raised his K:BB over 3. Sanchez's ERA is still a clean 0.00.

Billy Wagner, unfortunately, squandered his two run inheritance in the top of the ninth. Cohen et al were discussing whether he was having difficulty with the wet mound (the rain had been steady for most of the game). Cohen said that Wagner's stride to home plate is longer than Randy Johnson's. That's kind of hard to believe.

Ramon Castro made a great defensive play, picking Chris Duffy off first base to get the second out of the 10th inning. He then struck out looking to make the second out of the bottom of that inning. The Toad giveth, the Toad taketh away.

"... and it's OUTTA HERE!"

It's a walkoff. Carlos Delgado takes lefty Mike Gonzalez deep to left to win the game in the bottom of the 12th. He has 11 home runs on the season, and the Mets are now 18-9. Drawing the foul, and once again it counts.

This hurts to watch

"Who the hell is Mike O'Connor and why is he dominating my Mets?" That's the question I've been asking myself, until I made the long, hard slog over to the Baseball Cube to find out. Turns out he's not without some pedigree. 7th round pick out of GW, solid minor league numbers but he was getting kinda ripe for High-A. I'm not sure why he's suddenly in the majors but, with the exception of Paul Lo Duca, homeboys could not hit him.

John Maine got hit pretty hard, especially by Soriano, whose shot hit the left field mezzanine. He gave up four runs, but it wasn't a disaster and he did manage to strike out six. I think he might be what people mean by Quadruple-A, at least for the forseeable future.

The disaster was the offense, which through 8 innings has produced only two hits: a home run and single from Lo Duca. Beltran and Wright managed walks. I'm not big on booing, especially a team at 17-8, but how frustrating would this game be in person?

Darren Oliver's new car smell faded quite a bit in the time it took Damian Jackson to round the bases.

Bottom of the ninth... a home run by Beltran, and that's all she wrote. Mets lose 6-2.

I just bought tickets to see Pedro tomorrow night against the Pirates, who I'm hoping offer little in the way of resistance. The way the Mets are hitting at the moment, it's probably still going to be close.

Elsewhere in baseball...

- Johan Santana is turning in a vintage performance through 7 IP.

- Edwin Encarnacion (950 OPS) is a big reason why the Reds are winning. Apparently the defense is brutal, but what are you going to do? (see: D. Wright)

- Charlie Manuel and Willie Randolph apparently went to lineup school together: he's batting Ryan Howard sixth, behind Aaron Rowand.

- The Texas Rangers lineup is incredible... and the pitching is incredibly bad. It's not just the park.

Assist: Majewski

The Braves came alive against Steve Trachsel, winning 8-5 and avoiding the historic sweep. Francoeur had a very big day, including a home run off of Jorge Julio, who to his credit struck out five in his two innings to raise his K:BB for the season over four (22:5). Kyle Davies didn't dominate the Mets, as he has in the past, but he didn't give up many.

It's disappointing, especially since the Mets did manage to put together a couple late-inning threats, but not a disaster. There were bright spots: Endy Chavez apparently didn't read my discussion of how bad he is, hitting his first home run of the season. I'd still rather not have him start too many games in right field, if we can avoid it.

Plus Ramon Castro had two hits, also gunning down the larcenous Ryan Langerhans. If Castro could be said to embody one of the syles in "The Five Deadly Venoms", it would have be the Toad, but he can play a little bit. Bottom line: if you're already shocked to see the Mets lose a game played in Atlanta and started by Steve Trachsel, you've let your expectations get a little too lofty.

As I'm writing this it's the bottom of the ninth in a 1-1 tie with Los Nationales. Billy Wagner came in at the top of the inning, struck out Nick Johnson and then just absolutely broke Jose Guillen. I mean the poor guy actually hurt his ankes trying to chase the slider, which would have hit his right heel, and had to walk it off for a second. Wagner was hitting 98mph on the SNY gun.

Game Over! Mets win 2-1 on a walkoff error. Gary Majewski snared a comebacker from Lo Duca, but threw high and it went into center field. Chavez came around to score the winning run. A little flukish, but I'll take it.

Victor Zambrano did a very good job. Six clean, efficient innings and certainly deserving of a win. Feliciano, Sanchez and Wagner were almost perfect in the 7th through 9th: 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K. Carlos Delgado hit an opposite field home run, into the wind, for the Mets' first run.

John Maine gets the start tomorrow. He's been quite effective at Norfolk.

Finish them!

I haven't read "Win Shares", but believe the idea is that you can divide each win into three "shares" to be attributed among 1-3 players on the winning team according to how much they contributed to the victory (if one guy does it all he can receive two or even three). I think credit for last night's 1-0 gem could be pretty evenly split among Glavine, Lo Duca, and Floyd.

Tom Glavine has been dazzling. You have to go back to 1994 to find the last season his K/9 exceeded 7, and there were only two of them. It may not stay there, but there's a trend to go along with the spike: he's lowered his ERA and improved his K/BB each year since his rather unimpressive debut with the Mets. I did not see this coming, but it's quite a pleasant surprise.

I do think it's worth mentioning that showing improvement past the age of 35 has been taken as evidence of steroid use in a lot of players. I don't think anyone would suggest that Glavine is juicing, but maybe someone should just to be fair.

Seeing the wide range of players and pitchers who have tested positive, it's obvious that the drugs aren't just for transforming early Sammy Sosa into late Sammy Sosa, and conceivable that a diminutive, aging pitcher might need chemical assistance just to keep on truckin' (I know he's not quite hippie-aged but I'm trying to make a point). I also think that the media are a lot more credulous of the "intense work ethic" as an explanation for the longevity of white athletes than non-white athletes. Again, I'm not actually suggesting Tom Terrific is slathering himself in the Clear, but he's obviously doing something right and I sure hope he keeps it up.

Lo Duca's contribution was obvious enough: his first and by far his most timely home run of the season. Not a cheap one, either. It's pretty much axiomatic that he was the difference in the game. But Cliff Floyd is the reason why Lo Duca's HR stayed the difference in the game. He made two brilliant catches in left, one diving, one sliding, that saved at least two runs.

Kaz Matsui is off to a very good start. I don't think our season rises or falls with the production we get from the keystone, but how nice would it be if there were actually some production to speak of?

In other news, the Henry Owens whispers are growing in volume. Mike Pelfrey joined Owens at Binghamton this week, and continued to put his thing down. These two are both doing phenomenal work. I'm still calling for Julio's head (and Zambrano's removal from the rotation), but there are options at Norfolk, and sitting on a seven-game division lead, the Mets should be in no real hurry to call these promising youngsters up... boy was that fun to write.

This afternoon Steve Trachsel will attempt to execute his personal finishing move on the Atlanta lineup. I've heard it takes a while to develop, but can be quite spectacular.

Eyes Wide Shut

Pedro Martinez treated the Braves like 7-up, improving to 5-0 and lowering his ERA to 2.94. David Wright ripped two home runs. God's in his heaven. All's right with the world.

If you look at Wright's record, you'll see that he continues to improve in every offensive category. This is what his projected season line looks like:

Wright: 604 AB, 44 2B, 15 3B, 37 HR, 44 SB .329/.392/.634

This can't continue indefinitely, but don't confuse this for mere precociousness. He's one of the five best offensive players in baseball, and instead of reverting to some kind of normalcy he's just getting better. He needs to tighten up the defense. A lot. At the same time, there's raw talent there too, as the barehanded catch among other plays has demonstrated. I'm not saying he'll ever quite outhit Albert Pujols, but if he's not already that inner circle of truly unique players, he's making a B-line for it. I no longer think Scott Rolen should be held out as his best case scenario.

I saw on this afternoon's Mets Weekend Special or whatever on SNY, and saw that they had the authors of Eddie Kranepool Society, Faith and Fear, and I think maybe one other blogginghead doing commentary on Piazza in San Diego and other subjects. It's good to see them getting some pub.

Kranepool does a good job, but I find his take today on Endy Chavez to be very different from my own. He expresses indifference for the return date of Carlos Beltran, because Endy Chavez is opening a lot of eyes. He calls him the best centerfielder in the game right now, and that he is "even growing in confidence with the bat as well. His ability to lay down a bunt and beat it out is outstanding and a lost art. Chavez is a throwback player."

Yeaahhh. I've been impressed with his defense too, and would even concede for the sake of argument that he's better than Jones, Hunter, Cameron and Edmonds with the glove. It's not enough. The only people whose defense could possibly be good enough to make up for Endy Chavez's hitting are all comic book characters. Watching him take his hacks is just infuriating. It's nice that his speed allows him to beat out bunts and infield singles, but he's clearly not doing it frequently enough to keep his OBP above .285. He can make all the catches he wants. I want Carlos back ASAP.

Update

McConnell does a great job with Tim Marchman's heretical claim that "Lastings Milledge is a fraud." First of all, I didn't read Marchman's whole article because it requires a subscription to the Sun which I just won't do, but he's basically pointing out that Milledge hasn't hit any home runs. McConnell finds some very good centerfielders (headlined by Edmonds, power-wise), who were also not clearing many fences in their age 20 seasons. I still give Marchman credit for calling attention to a rather important number which has been really glossed over for a long time, all the more so now that Milledge is looking great.

Poking the Braves with a stick

When the Mets get their second crack at the Braves this weekend, they will be in the unfamiliar position of protecting a 5-game lead in the division. Despite scoring more runs than they've allowed, Atlanta is 9-12, which is enough to get me wondering if dethroning them might be even easier than I had expected.

Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria (who will be back in the lineup against the Mets tomorrow) have hit very well, as has Brian McCann. Even without Chipper, the lineup is very respectable. One possible exception: I don't think enough is being made of just how awful Jeff Francoeur has been this year. When he was hitting .38o or whatever, everyone was talking about how his performance disproved the importance of drawing walks. Perhaps now that pitchers have learned not to throw strikes, the buzz has died down considerably.

As for the pitching staff, I'm a fan of Hudson's, but Smoltz is another player whose age makes a return to form less than bankable. Kyle Davies and John Thomson are both good, but...

-- You know what, I'm changing my thesis mid-post. The Braves probably aren't going to suck. Don't get me wrong, I still don't think they're as good as the Mets, but I was hoping to see a withered husk of a our long-time tormentors. They've got a good deal of offensive talent themselves, and they're rotation is no worse than average. So I'll make a few more points but without an eye towards robbing them of their dignity as a franchise --

Anyway back to how their pitching is not what it once was: The departure of Leo Mazzone is a good explanation for Jorge Sosa suddenly jumping back down the balance sheet from "asset" to "liability." I'm not sure that's actually it, but for whatever reason he's been horrendous.

Separate from the Mazzone effect, more in John Schuerholz's sphere of influence, is the fact that the pitching staff is not exactly awash in talent. In addition to name-brand old reliever Mike Remlinger, the team is carrying a guy named Kenny Ray who is 31 and prior to this season had pitched in 11.1 major league innings (in 1999). Given how few in the ATL bullpen has much of a track record of effectiveness, Joey Devine should be given more of a chance.

I still have a visceral dislike of the Braves which I can only attribute to equal parts Northeastern provincialism and the resentment accrumulated over the course of this embarrassingly one-sided rivalry. "The Team? The Time?" I sure hope so.

***

Lastings Milledge has taken his game to the next level. He still hasn't shown the ability to hit home runs (1 in 70 AB), which you'd like to see, but he's been doing plenty of everything else. He's hitting .400/.522/.600, walked more than he's struck out, and is 6-8 stealing bases in his first exposure to Triple-A. I still don't think it's at the point where we start cursing Nady for blocking him, but that day could come a lot sooner than I was expecting.

Mets Win in 11, Wright Taken Off the Hook

David Wright just doubled to right, scoring Julio Franco to give the Mets a 7-4 lead. Prior to that, Franco had hit a tough pitch for a 2-run single and then, incredibly, stolen second. "Well-preserved" just doesn't go far enough.

Brian Bannister allowed three runs in five innings before being taken out with a hamstring injury. I don't know what the prognosis is, but he had to be helped off the field, which bodes ill. He may not be as good as his ERA, but this isn't a blessing in disguise or anything. [It has to be said: this is why you don't trade Kris Benson for a song... a chubby, ineffective song.]

Aaron Heilman gave up a run, but other than the very hittable first pitch fastball to Moises Alou which resulted in the RBI, he did a good job. Plus he pitched two innings; dare I imagine that Randolph is stretching him out?

Or maybe Mr. Minaya will deal with the problem in the true spirit of Mets general management, and trade for Greg Maddux. Really, what better way to stick it to the Braves than by winning the division with Glavine and Maddux in the rotation? That'd be sweet. Kevin Millwood will probably be available at the deadline, too.

Just announced: Julio Franco is not the oldest player to steal a base, but he is the oldest to do so in the last 97 years. I bet it took a lot less speed to steal bags in 1909, but that's purely speculation. It's also speculation that whoever was stealing bases at age 47 in 1909 probably had some good stories to tell.

Unbelievable. Barry Bonds just tied the game with a 2-run pinch-hit homer off Wagner. The game should have been over but Wright threw another ball into the seats behind first base.

Keith Hernandez: "I will not second guess Willie Randolph. It's just incredible." I agree. It's just bad luck that Randolph has discovered that Bonds is still very dangerous. No one knows what he's capable of, so you have to go by the numbers. The only thing we can be sure of is that the numbers will be a lot scarier after this series than they were before it.

The Mets failed to score in the top of the 10th... Bradford and Oliver worked around two baserunners in the bottom half... Chris Woodward doubled in Ramon Castro (8-7)... Reyes singled in Woodward (9-7)... It's over. Bonds just flied out to deep center. Whew. Great game to watch. Losing would have hurt.

If it walks like a duck, but doesn't hit like a duck...

I'm not surprised that teams haven't started pitching to Bonds yet, but it's time. 36 at-bats is not a lot, but it's enough so that his only having 1 HR is a bright red flag. I'm not saying the phenomenon is over, but at this point I think it behooves opposing managers to start finding out.

A batting line of .222/.541/.389 has to have a story behind it; there's just no plausible explanation for a .222 hitter and a .389 slugger (forget we're talking about Bonds here) to get on base 54% of the time. One possible creation myth for such a line might be that Joey Gathright, frustrated by his terrible year at the plate, channeled his anger into a form of telekinesis which allowed him to divert incoming pitches out of the strike zone at will.

What's actually happening is kind of an unbelievable story in it's own right: a 41-year old Barry Bonds has been so devastating for so long that managers and pitchers still aren't comfortable with the idea that it may not be professional suicide to throw him a strike. Maybe it still is, but he hasn't done anything this season to prove it.

This is not a long, indirect way of blaming Willie Randolph for last night's game. Bonds only scored one of the Giants' six runs, and he would have only been the second out in the 7th when Alou drove in two more. I'm just saying if I were a manager I'd try to overcome my Pavlovian response to the sight of Bonds in the batter's box, and go after the old boy.

Another reason not to put much blame on Randolph is that the Mets only scored two runs. After going 8-34 with a double in the San Diego finale, the Mets managed to regress last night, mustering a lousy six singles in 34 ABs. That's not going to get it done most nights.

So now we stand at 12-7 on the year. Only the White Sox have a better record so far, and no other NL East team is above .500. I'm very happy with the team's performance so far. I wasn't as excited as some about the 10-2 start, but I'm not especially worried about the offensive slump the team's going through right now. It's officially a slump, but Delgado and Wright are still sporting gaudy lines, and there's good reason to expect improvement in other areas.

While I'm accentuating the positive, I have a second olive branch to offer Randolph: he is using Heilman in very high-leverage situations. It's not mop-up duty as I had anticipated. That makes a difference, and could, if Randolph uses him this way all season, result in Heilman actually preventing more runs than Billy Wagner. I maintain that he should be given an opportunity to start, but at least he's not being wasted.

Tonight the Mets face Jamey Wright, the former Rocky whose early season numbers look a lot like Brian Bannister's. Here's hoping they unleash the fury.

The pure play on Victor Zambrano anger

I read the email. I know what you're thinking: "Sure, Doyle, you think the Zambrano trade was a nightmare from which the Mets refuse to wake up, but occasionally you veer off-topic. Sometimes you complain about Zambrano problem from the Aaron Heilman standpoint. Sometimes you tackle different problems entirely, like Jose Reyes as a leadoff hitter (except for when he gets off to a hot start, I notice), or Jorge Julio as any sort of major league pitcher. Why can't you stay on point?"

Dear readers, I have your complete solution. I just received an email from a Michael Baldwin who has started a blog dedicated entirely to Victor Zambrano. It's written in the first person (from Zambrano's perspective), and the first few posts are pretty funny.

The Keith Hernandez story is achieving critical mass, as defined as making an appearance on ESPN's "Bottom Line" ticker. I think Sandy Alderson's letter was on the money, but Calabrese's assessment that Hernandez "discredited [her] as a person" is a little much. Keith clearly wasn't talking about her as a person, but as a woman (as in "women don't belong in the dugout"). Expressing disapproval of her presence may make him a buffoon, but it wasn't anything personal. Anyway as I said I'm disabused of any great affection for Hernandez, but I'm satisfied that the public response was equal to the offensiveness of the remarks.

Game 1 in San Francisco is underway. Tom Glavine is on the hill against young Matt Cain.

I was very flattered to receive a promotional copy of a book called "The Last Nine Innings," by Charles Euchner. It's about Game 7 of the 2001 World Series between the Yankees and the Diamondbacks (or the Luis Gonzalez single up the middle game), but also uses the game to talk about topics such as offseason training, Jeter's defense, managerial strategy, etc.. I'll write more about it when I finish it, but I can say that it is worth looking into, which you can do here.

Moises Alou just took Glavine deep. Mets trail 3-0. Bummer.

Correction: I initially wrote that the S.F. starter tonight was Jason Schmidt. My mistake. Matt Cain is a big boy.

Time to take up an old banner

Pedro turned in one of those games on Saturday. One of those 1 ER/2 BB/11 K-type joints, and he is now 4-0. When the recap quotes him as describing his command as “pretty good” after the game, and contains no mention of any injury, it just makes the box score that much sweeter.

Carlos Delgado is flat-out raking the ball. Today I do not know, and do not care, where Yusmeiro Petit is pitching or what kind of performances he has been turning in.

Saturday’s game featured another standout performer. I hate to say it, but it may once again be time to FREE RAMON CASTRO!

Paul Lo Duca
2005: 445 AB .283/.334/.380
2006: 56 AB .286/.365/.357

Ramon Castro
2005: 209 AB .244/.321/.435
2006: 15 AB .400/.412/.733

Granted, it’s silly to include Castro incredibly small sample from this year, but the Mets’ not having played him isn't a good reason for the Mets not to play him. I know Lo Duca has him beat in average by a lot and OBP by a little, but the power difference is substantial enough to make Castro the better offensive option. His record of throwing out baserunners also compares favorably to Lo Duca’s. I realize that by Brad Ausmus standards Lo Duca is plenty handy with the bat, and there’s about a 0% chance of him losing his starting job unless he gets hurt. Plus there’s all those intangibles you hear so much about. All the same, I think his backup’s better.

Brian Giles may have done the Mets a huge favor last night. If he strikes out and the Mets end up winning 4-2, Victor Zambrano’s position in in the starting rotation might have been shored up. By crushing that grand slam, he’s really brought the point home to people who might otherwise have wanted to see Zambrano given more chances to “turn things around.”

David Wright (for whom the Dontrelle Willis offer was not even close) and Carlos Delgado both had two hits, but Wright’s double was the only Mets extra-base hit in 34 at-bats against Clay Hensley and company. My “strength of opposing pitching” thesis is in ribbons.

***

When I was a little kid, my favorite player was Keith Hernandez. I don’t have any idea why, but he was. He received the first and only fan mail I have ever sent. That I got no reply bothered my father more than me, but it still would have been nice, you know? And when my uncle told me (age six or so) that he was a rat-bastard for informing on fellow players, I didn’t really understand his (my uncle’s) accusations and doubted his credibility as he’s a Red Sox fan and this was ’87 or ’88.

Now, many years later, Keith Hernandez is back in my life. As for my uncle’s story, apparently he did testify in a cocaine trial in exchange for leniency on his own possession charge. So there’s that. It was a long time ago, and I don’t really know what happened. But now, in both his on-air comments about the San Diego trainer in the dugout and (especially) his subsequent apology, the picture of a jackass is starting to come into sharper focus. I just can’t really see a non-jackass assuring all you gals out there that he loves you and always has. He also used the weaselly “If I offended anyone…” non-apology. And that's on top of his failure to return my letter.

Padres 2 - Mets 1

How is Brian Bannister getting away with this? His 2.14 ERA is, I would argue, the most deceptive statistic in baseball right now. He is not pitching well. Thus far, opposing teams have not been able to capitalize on the many, many opportunities he's been giving them. Nonetheless, even assuming for the moment that he's one of those pitchers with a knack for getting out of jams, I'd be much more comfortable with a pitcher with a knack for getting hitters out.

Of course, a pitcher's job is to prevent runs, not baserunners, but damn. You just cannot keep walking more guys (5.9 per 9) than you strike out (5.1) and get away with it on any kind of consistent basis. At some point, opponents will start hitting timely doubles, instead of into timely double plays, especially given that Bannister has not demonstrated the ability to induce groundballs with any regularity (22 GB: 29 FB).

I'm as happy as anyone that he's been able to dodge bullets for 21 innings, but the way he's pitching, he's going to get the Sonny Corleone tollbooth treatment sooner rather than later. And when Willie has to run out to the mound to get him, and wails with tears in his eyes "Look what they did to my boy!", let it never be said that I didn't try to warn him.

Carlos Delgado continues to do it, but the Mets offense once again failed to put any crooked numbers on the board. It's not like Woody Williams is quite in that Hudson-Peavy class either, but I'm not going to worry about the offense just yet.

Although Chad Bradford ended up taking the collar, both bullpens put up incredible combined lines last night:

SD: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K
NY: 8 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 10 K

How much fun was it to watch Cliff Floyd swipe second off Mike Piazza? It's the little things, really. After so many years of watching teams exploit Mike like an 11 year-old Malaysian seamstress, it was nice to be wearing the Nikes for once.

Elsewhere in the division, Alfonso Soriano tagged three home runs and a double to pretty much singlehandedly beat the Braves. I had expected his offensive numbers to suffer dramatically in RFK, but apparently he can clear those fences, too. Meanwhile John Lieber took his 4th loss of the season f0r the Phils despite pitching very well.

Tonight Pedro Martinez faces former/escaped Texas Ranger Chris Young. At some point you would think the string of pitchers' duels would have to end, but this is a much stronger matchup than last night's. And given the aforementioned reliever contributions, I think both managers would like to see their guys make it at least into the seventh.

Mets win on Franco's record-setting HR

This is going to be a recurring theme this season: I can't stay up late enough to watch the end of west coast games. Last year that was not a problem, I was practically nocturnal, but these days I actually have to wake up early in the morning and occasionally that will prevent me from witnessing history.

I get more of a kick out of Julio Franco than I ever did out of Cal Ripken Jr., whose adoration I still don't fully understand. So he never got seriously injured, presumably hid or played through the minor injuries, and played for a very long time? These things just don't add up to heroism in my book. Plus he was only 40 when he packed it in, which is old but it's not like you looked at him and marveled at the longevity.

With Franco, you can tell he's 47. The body is large (arms especially) but the face is weatherbeaten. He's almost 20% older than Ripken was at retirement, and he's still useful against major league pitching. I'm not saying he's any more heroic than Ripken, but he's more freakish and (therefore) fun to watch.

The Mets could not muster much of anything against Jake Peavy, but got to the San Diego bullpen for six runs. Delgado had a two-run homer of his own, bringing his season line to .339/.400/.678, which is both outstanding and pretty consistent with what he's done over the course of his career. He'll give some of this back, but not all of it.

Tonight Brian Bannister gets the ball against Woody Williams. Last night's ending lent credence to the theory that the Mets' brief run of weak hitting had more to do with the pitchers they were facing (16 innings of Hudson-Peavy) than anything else, but it's always hard to tell. All I know is I'd like for them to maintain the best record in baseball for as long as possible, because that, my friends, is a recipe for success.

Mets losing 2-1

Kaz Matsui has an inside-the-park home run. I think it might have been a home run in a smaller park, but it looked like Brian Giles probably should have made the play. Props to Cohen for pointing out before the at-bat that Kaz had a history of homering in his first appearance of the season.

Trachsel is looking decent. He does take an ungodly amount of time between pitches, but they're not hitting him hard.

David Wright had a very good at-bat against Peavy. Worked a full count, fouled at least one off, and then got a two-seamer on the outside part of the plate and croaked it into right field.

This is a little off-topic: There's a particular McDonald's ad in which two black males get excited beyond all reason about the prospect of free menu items that I find incredibly irritating and offensive. It also has a volume setting several notches louder than the broadcast itself. Really pulling for that one to get replaced.

Hudson River Schooled

Tim Hudson is an interesting specimen. He was a legitimate power pitcher in his first two campaigns, and then started striking out fewer hitters, and then in 2004 (his last year in Oakland) pretty much stopped striking out hitters entirely. This is a slight exaggeration, but his K/9 would not have been an embarrassing ERA (4.91).

The transformation could perhaps best be described as derekloweification, in that he started inducing groundballs by the ton. While he is and always has been much more effective than Derek Lowe, his results are more subject to luck, and defense, than guys like say Curt Shilling. His first start of the season was a good example of how he can look unimpressive. 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER and a no decision, despite getting 13 ground balls and 1 fly which did not leave the yard. It will be interesting to see how the Atlanta infield, and possibly a continued defensive decline from a more offense-oriented Andruw Jones, holds up behind him.

Last night was a (painful) example of how hard it can be to score off him, and why his career ERA still sits at a remarkable 3.37. It was total domination.

Tom Glavine was almost as good, which is really encouraging because I've been wary of him for over a year now and would love to get comfortable with him as our #2 starter. Unfortunately he too got served by the baby-faced assassin, and thanks to one of David Wright's hat trick of errors, that proved to be the difference.

I've made a point of not caring about Wright's defense, because c'mon. But after watching him almost airmail another routine throw for a fourth error, I confess that a little montage of late-stage Chuck Knoblauch flashed through my head and I got a little bit queasy.

Xavier Nady struck out twice and grounded into a very inopportune double play. He's cut! I'm just kidding, of course. Jose Valentin is the one who needs to be cut, and that's no joke. He's 36 years old. He couldn't muster even a .600 OPS last year in 147 ABs with the Dodgers, and his 15 at-bats this year have resulted in five strikeouts and absolutely nothing else. His neatly trimmed mustache is apparently distracting Omar and Willie from the giant fork sticking out of him.

Tonight Nady, Piazza, and Cameron (if he's in the building) get a look at their former teams. And all the Mets will get a nice long steamy gawk at Jake Peavy, who is really quite awesome. Of course, so is our offense, so it works out pretty well. Plus Trachsel has been throwing pretty effectively himself.

Time to play "Find the Fifth Starter"

Contestant A
108.0 IP, 3.17 ERA, 8.83 K/9, 2.87 K/BB, 6 HR

Contestant B
166.1 IP, 4.17 ERA, 6.06 K/9, 1.46 K/BB, 12 HR

Both A and B have something else working in their favor. Contestant A is 27, more than three years younger than Contestant B. On the other hand, Contestant B was acquired in trade for highly regarded Prospect K, so it wouldn't reflect very well on the front office to move him out of the rotation now, would it?

This intangible quality of Victor Zambrano, that the Mets paid dearly for him, seems to be the only thing recommending him for the job. I can't come up with any other reason why the Mets would be willing to give him the ball every fifth day while a vastly superior pitcher (Heilman, if you hadn't gathered) sits in the bullpen, waiting for Willie to kick him a few scraps of long relief or 7th inning opportunities.

I don't want to give the impression that I've been a Heilman fan all along. He took his sweet time improving to the point where he could be trusted in the majors in any capacity, but his performance last year was outstanding, and when 26 year-olds turn in great seasons, you give them a shot at a full-time job when they're 27. There oughta be a law.

It's great that the Mets are 10-3, but it's not going to be a cakewalk to the division title, and watching Andruw Jones take batting practice at Shea is not my idea of a good time.

Update

Metsblog has the Zambrano issue well covered. I hadn't read that quote of Peterson's in which he actually accuses Mets fans of being impatient with Zambrano's progress. Really, Rick? You're really going to call us impatient when a guy who you said you could fix in 10 minutes still sucks after 32 starts in blue and orange? Here's what I think you should do: 1) shut up 2) fix Zambrano 3) when you fail to fix Zambrano, admit as much and focus on the guys who actually show promise. The Mets have the best team ERA in baseball thus far at 3.51, which is great and Peterson may have something to do with it, but seriously Rick, shut up.

Can't Stop/Won't Stop

What's more exciting, that Carlos Beltran is doing what he used to do all the time back in the day (.273/.422/.576), or that his .998 OPS ranks 4th on the team right now? As a matter of fact, Nady, Delgado, and Wright are all over 1.100. That's bonkers, and while it can't continue all season - especially in Nady's case - it's a very strong indication that this offense is probably at least as good as advertised. Even Paul Lo Duca is dialed in.

On the pitching side, the old boys are looking spry. I can't remember the last time Tom Glavine had a double-digit strikeout rate, but it's encouraging to say the least. Pedro seems to be healthy and happy to have his 200th W (I just can't get excited about these "milestones", sorry), and Trachsel's first 11 innings have not left much to be desired.

I am going to abstain from the Brian Bannister Kool-Aid for the time being. The record and ERA are pretty, but the peripherals are borderline fuggly and with few exceptions (see: Rueter, K. and Buerhle, M.) the latter tell the better story.

The bullpen trio of Wagner, Sanchez and Heilman (plus Oliver?) have been great thus far. [Reference to Jorge Julio removed in the interest of not being accused of beating a dead horse, but such removal should not be construed as an indication that said horse is as dead as it should be, or that it doesn't richly deserve further beating.]

Some non-Mets related thoughts:

- Chris Shelton's start reminds me of Dmitri Young's start two years ago, but better. I thought he might hit 30, but it's clearly time to take those estimates up, even if he just has a mediocre year from here on out.

- Does starting pitching get any more erratic than Daniel Cabrera?

- Eric Karabell was reckless in advising fantasy leaguers to trade for Barry Bonds now, while his stock is low. Bonds is simply too old and his career too unique to assume that this slow start is just a blip on the screen. Legal issues aside, I think this may very well be the beginning of the end. I don't think he'll hit 40 HR this year.

- Mark Mulder just isn't that good.

- Kenji Johjima might be the first Japanese hitter whose first year numbers do not get lost in translation. He was a four-digit OPS guy in Japan and is looking like a solid bet for .900 or better for the M's.

Some SNY-related thoughts:

I was worried about Gary Cohen's transition to television for a minute there. Not all of it was his fault, I don't think. They had the in-booth camera set up in such a way that he had to lean to starboard (towards Keith) just to stay in frame, which heightened the usual awkwardness of two grown men sitting very, very close together. But there was more to it than that. It's not that Cohen's ugly, per se, but his default facial expression is totally humorless, and he doesn't have much of a repertoire beyond it. He has also looked horribly uncomfortable with the looking-at-Keith/Ron vs. looking-at-camera thing, shifting his intense stare back and forth every five seconds or so in a slightly furtive, unsettling way. As a huge Gary Cohen fan, I'd hate to see him be remembered as a poor TV broadcaster rather than one of the very best on radio.

Watching last night's post-game, he seems to have improved markedly since the first few games of the season. Most importantly, he's begun to sport the neutral smile that TV heads have to wear when they're not talking. That's a club he really needs to have in his bag. Cohen is sort of the anti-Harold Reynolds (who leads the airwaves in appearance:substance ratio). He has a phen0menal understanding of the game and an obvious talent for talking about it, so if he can get just his on-air appearance just to the point where it's not distractingly weird (and I think he's almost there), he'll be one of the best on television, too.

Two weeks in the books

Here is a note from CBS Sportsline on Aaron Heilman:

Unfortunately for Heilman owners, the Mets' former No. 1 pick is too good as a setup man to move to the rotation at this point. He's likely the Mets' No. 6 starter, though. It doesn't help that rookie Brian Bannister is off to such a great start in the Mets' rotation. Heilman's best chance to start is for Victor Zambrano (hamstring) to fail or be unable to start.

That's right. Why waste him for the first 5-7 innings of a game when he can be used for one inning towards the end of the game? After all, the later innings are much more important! Why else would teams always use their best reliever in the 9th inning?

What's really scary is not that there are ostensibly professional commentators who can't see the rank stupidity of the "too good to start" idea, it's that it is quite possibly just what Willie Randolph is thinking. This is, after all, a guy who batted David Wright 7th last year, and, after a full season of watching him be the best hitter on the team, now bats him 6th.

Jose Reyes has been hitting the snot out of the ball, and rather than simply dismiss it as small sample size and resume my usual rants about his doesn't-walk-iness, I will say that to my untrained eye, his at-bats are looking a lot better. He still only has one walk so far, but he does not seem to be swinging at everything and when he does swing, he's been hitting the ball. I don't really care how he gets his OBP up to .350. If he bats .335 with a walk every two weeks that's fine by me, and if any power develops it will be beginning to look a lot like Christmas.

Brian Bannister is doing just fine. I really hope it continues. I should also point out that Jae Seo has given up 4 HR in his first 8 innings in LA, and that Duaner Sanchez has looked great. So the first two weeks of the season look good as far as that trade is concerned.

However there remains the thorny issue of Jorge Julio. Let me just say that it gives me no pleasure to have been right about this one. When I saw those 250 lbs of run-surrendering beefsteak come lumbering out of the bullpen on April 5, the feeling of inevitability wasn't pleasant at all. I didn't look forward to other Mets fans discovering what I already knew, deep in my bones, to be true: Jorge Julio sucks. Meanwhile Kris Benson has turned in two exceptionally clean seven-inning efforts in Baltimore.

Not-Quite-Preseason Predictions

NL East
Mets
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Nationals

NL Central
St. Louis
Houston
Milwaukee
Cincinatti
Chicago
Pittsburgh

NL West
Los Angeles
San Diego
Colorado
San Francisco
Arizona

AL East
Boston
New York
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

AL Central
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Detroit
Kansas City

AL West
Oakland
Los Angeles
Texas
Seattle

World Series: Mets over Indians
NL MVP: Pujols
AL MVP: Rodriguez
NL Cy Young: Peavy
AL Cy Young: Santana
NL ROY: Fielder
AL ROY: Kinsler

I don't hate the WBC

I like the idea of international competition in baseball. I'm not a serious soccer fan, but I do follow it somewhat and enjoy its co-mingling of professional and international events. The best players in the world all play both for club and for country. While there may not be enough truly baseball-playing countries to populate a full tournament just yet, it's getting pretty close.

A lot of the criticism of the WBC has been to the effect that MLB's motivations for promoting the sport internationally are purely mercenary. This is less important to me that the viability of the tournament itself. It needs to achieve a certain legitimacy that it won't have until it gets full participation from the best players. Gary Sheffield expressed his concerns with the WBC quite succinctly: "My season is when I get paid." Others who have taken a pass have cited the timing as the sticking point, since most MLB players, especially pitchers, are just rounding back into shape in early March. They usually suggest "like, maybe a week around the All-Star break or something like that." Then there is the MLB team resistance, as most vociferously expressed by the New York Yankees: why should we let our players risk injury by playing for another team?

I don't see why the players shouldn't get compensated for playing for their national team. And as for the timing, it seems to me that no matter where you put it on the calendar, it's going to be right before or right after or right in the middle of the MLB season, each of which has its disadvantages. That is really a part of the trickiest issue, which is the extent to which extending the players' effective season any further will take an unacceptable toll on their durability and royally screw their employers.

To put things in terms more directly relevant to this blog: I'd be sweating bullets right now if Pedro Martinez were pitching for the DR. It wouldn't be fun for me. I'd just be hoping he gets shelled on five or six misplaced fastballs and put on ice. Of course, unlike most people in my neighborhood, I'm not Dominican. It would be really unfortunate to lose one of your team's best players during international competition, but is the risk so great that it should preclude the game from holding the WBC even on a quadrennial basis? As you may have been able to discern, my answer would be no.

The commentary on the WBC has been so promotional as to detract from the experience of watching the games. Rather than spending much time with analysis of the teams' or players' strengths and weaknesses, the announcers are mostly concerned with the mindblowing success of the event. They want viewers at home to know just how "into it" the players and the spectators are. This is by most accounts true, but at least during the games more attention should be given to the actual sport than the WBC as such.

Despite its risks and shortcomings, I think it's a good idea that will take some time to be accepted as a regular part of baseball. Once it does, I think it will be much looked-forward to, and we won't need to be relentlessly sold on what a good idea it is. Because if you look at the lineups (or potential lineups) of the Venezuelan, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Japanese and American teams, there's no reason why they can't play a tourney every once in a while.

Curling is a terrible substitute for baseball

I am knee-deep in my roto league preparations. Fresh PECOTA forecasts are being compared (BP has outdone itself this year). Lists are being compiled and repeatedly tweaked. The ads on the Winter Olympics broadcast which speak of the true greats' dedication ("there is no offseason" etc.) inspire me to new heights of nerdery.

Part of me is a little sad to see David Wright appearing just outside, if not in, a lot of top ten lists. Not top ten third basemen, mind you - overall. The cat is out of the bag, and hitting the long ball. Wright's baseline PECOTA forecast is better than Tejada's, Manny's, or Vlad's. It calls for a 90% chance of stardom with a 65% chance of superstardom.

To the extent Reyes still gets top billing of the two, or people continue to talk about how "good this kid could be," there are still those who don't seem to get it. But I think the skeptical or clueless will be fewer and fewer as time goes on.

I guess what I was kind of hoping would be some sort of adjustment period. Call it David Wright: the Prospect. Yes, he tore up the minors, but this is The Show that folks talk so much about. Surely it would take some time for the undeniable promise to be fulfilled*. As it turned out, not so much. As soon as he got the job, and (much later) an appropriate spot in the lineup, the goods were delivered promptly and in bulk.

Am I ambivalent about this? No. I'm not seriously complaining that our stud prospect got too good too soon. I'm just suggesting the homegrown prospect story may be at its most enjoyable when it is still in its regional phase, and for Wright the national pub is about to begin in earnest.

Our boy's all growns up, is I guess my point.

As for Reyes, it's time for me to just put a paper bag over his OBP and admit that, at least for fantasy purposes, he does have some attractive attributes (What?) . The potential for 60 steals, 110 runs and a .280 average from the SS position is just too compelling to pass up on principle. Is he a below-average offensive player? Sure. But whether or not he should be batting leadoff for the Mets, he is, and there are some "RBI-type" guys behind him this year. Plus he runs like a gazelle.

The old guard, which also happens to be the new guard (Delgado & Wagner), are both fairly safe bets to do what they were brought here to do (i.e. be among the best at their positions). As tough as Shea is, it's slightly less tough on lefty hitters, and Florida was no picnic either. And the question with Wagner is always about quantity rather than quality, and the early word from camp is that he's in good shape, if hampered by the flu at the moment.

Then there's Pedro, who's been known to dazzle... Beltran, whose star has dimmed but I'd wager not permanently. The team looks strong to quite strong. As a matter of fact, I'm going to stop hedging my bets here: the Mets should win the division. I know Atlanta has won every year, but even a blind, southern squirrel finds a nut every once in a while... or 11 times in a row.




* During which period of relative sucking the more enlightened Mets fans would solicit patience for the kid, and then enjoy an "I told you so" moment or two if/when David Wright the Star finally made his appearance.

Stop Trading!

In an earlier post, I wrote that after the Delgado and Wagner acquisitions, Omar could twiddle his thumbs for the rest of the offseason. I'm starting to wish he had.

A couple of the moves make sense to me. Bret Boone is worth a shot. Sure, he'll be 37 years old, but he was 34 when he posted a 900 OPS with 35 home runs. And yes, he appeared to completely collapse last year (.221/.290/.350 in 360 ghastly PAs), and wept openly upon his demotion. He's even been removed from ESPN's player database, so you need to go to Baseball-Reference for his numbers.

Still, given his fairly stellar record since his 30th birthday, a return to career-average type numbers isn't difficult to imagine. Second base was the blackest of holes last year, and a minor league contract is no great expense.

And Paul Lo Duca? Fine. He's an adequate hitter, so I'll put up with Buster Olney & Co. telling us what a great clubhouse guy he is until my ears bleed. What chance did Gaby Hernandez have of making it all the way through the Mets farm system anyway? It's almost as though this front office won't be satisfied until they've cleansed it of every pitching prospect who could possibly be flipped for a C-grade veteran. But again, I can understand the move in this new, Post-Mike Jacobs era.

[Note: On second thought, I'm looking at Ramon Castro and seeing that he was appreciably better than PLoD last year. Better hitter, better at throwing out (and apparently discouraging) baserunners, and he's three years younger. So forget that deal, too.]

The ones I'm unhappy about are the two that ostensibly "bolstered" the bullpen, but did so by depleting the rotation to a much greater extent. I've never fancied myself a hard-core Jae Seo fan, but apparently no one else believes that he took a big step forward last season. He doesn't strike guys out, but neither does Brad Radke, and you don't see him getting traded for Duaner Sanchez.

Similarly, Kris Benson is no Cy Young contender, and it's now pretty safe to say he never will be. 2005 was his best year in a while, and it wasn't all that sweet. But at the end of the day, he doesn't suck. Let there be no mistake: Jorge Julio S-U-C-K-S.

He's the reliever people wrongly accused Armando Benitez of being: the hard-throwing righty who's constantly walking hitters, and watches a lot of the strikes he does throw get crushed. It's not a good steez.

Heath Bell was not as good as I thought he'd be last year, but can anyone honestly make the case that he (or Padilla) is a worse bet than Julio in 2006? Why would Omar trade ANYONE, let alone a full-time starter, to get this clown? ...That's right. I'm sticking my neck out. If Julio is any good at all, I'll eat my words.

I'm trying to stay focused on the positive, like how much better Delgado will be at first than Mientkiewicz-Cairo, but I think the chances are good that we'll miss Seo and Benson at some point this season. Good starters are more valuable than good relievers, and Jorge Julio isn't either.

This is still the best team in the NL East, and I'm looking forward to Spring Training.

New Year's Observations

The Gary Cohen move to the TV booth may be a great thing. I've thought him the best announcer, on TV or radio, but had no idea until recently how many people feel the same way. The upgrade from the Seaver-Healy team will be considerable, but I almost feel like Cohen will be wasted on television. His uncanny ability to communicate the action of the game will really not be called for in his new job. But maybe we'll only regret the move wasn't made sooner.

I wouldn't mind seeing the Mets make a deal for Miguel Tejada, provided they don't sell the farm. But man, Tejada needs to shut his pie hole. You signed a long-term deal for huge money with a team with no recent track record of success. This is the business you've chosen.

I don't hate Toronto's offseason. The BP heads were generally outraged by the money and years of the Burnett and Ryan signings, and Glaus is rightly considered an unsure thing. As I mentioned earlier, I am a BJ Ryan fan. Will he be fairly old (35) at the end of that deal? Sure, but I think will be $9M/yr-type dominant for the bulk of it. He hasn't been this good for very long, but you don't do what he's been doing by accident. We're not talking about Danny Kolb here.

Dayn Perry wrote a dissenting opinion, which I mostly agree with, in which he argues that the Blue Jays are now legitimate contenders for the division title. The one point of his that no longer holds is the synergy of the high GB:FB Burnett with the awesome defense of Orlando Hudson (as the latter was dealt for Glaus), but they should be good regardless.

I would trade Lastings Millege before Aaron Heilman, and I wouldn't trade either for Danys Baez.

It could be mostly the ones I know, but it seems like Red Sox fans are getting way too bent out of shape out of Johnny Damon's departure. Maybe it was just about the money. Maybe not. In either case, pull yourselves together.

Kevin Millwood's new contract with the Rangers makes Benson's look fiscally responsible.

If the Mets make even a modest upgrade at 2nd base (having come to grips with the awfulness of Kaz Matsui), they really should be the betting favorite for the division. Florida will be terrible. Washington should be terrible. Atlanta doesn't appear any better, but I haven't really looked into them yet. Maybe I should hold off on the predictions, come to think of it...

I'm not putting money on the Rose Bowl, but if I were, it would not be on Texas.

Wagner Signed to Four Year Deal

For the second consecutive year, Omar Minaya has made a pair of acquisitions of such impact that he could probably spend the rest of the off-season drinking mojitos and playing XBox 360 without drawing a word of criticism. Not that I have any reason to expect he will do either.

Hours after Carlos Delgado met the press and had is picture taken in a Mets uni, the report came that Billy Wagner will be joining him.

I may appear to have a bias against the "win now" mentality which, it would seem, a fan should like to see from his or her front office. If there's one thing I think I might be guilty of, analysis-wise, it's overvaluing high-grade prospects and undervaluing outstanding veterans. But this deal takes place in a different context than that which saw the Mo Vaughn, Tom Glavine and (cough) Victor Zambrano acquisitions. The Mets now have a legitimate championship-caliber roster.

To look at the heart of the Mets lineup, the starting rotation, and the top portion of the bullpen depth chart is to peep game. Chalk it up to shrewd management, brute financial force, or whatever; it's hard to imagine this team winning fewer than 90 games. I'm excited. Perhaps even... yes, giddy. I'm going to save my final, and far more quantitative, predictions for the spring, but my preliminary diagnosis of the Mets is that they are just plain sick.

Do I wish Omar could have signed Wagner to a 2 year deal instead? Sure, but I'm comfortable with the impossibility of such a deal. And, for all my harping about the overemphasis on the Dominant Closer in baseball, I do look forward to seeing one ply his trade at Shea.

If we get two years and 140 innings of prime Billy Wagner, I can live with what could very well be an underperforming investment after that. The Mets may not win the Series in the next two years, but at the time the deal was done (i.e. today), Mr. Minaya was well within his rights to consider this a team that can "win now," and should be loaded up with the finest, if not freshest, talent available.

Of course, I don't expect the Mets are done shopping. The dual offers to Bengie Molina and Carlos Hernandez are apparently still standing. I'm pulling hard for Hernandez, and wish Omar had focused on him more exclusively, but he can't just keep doing everything we wish for, can he?

Mets Miss Ryan Express

The most valuable reliever on the market has been scooped up by J.P. Ricciardi's Toronto Blue Jays. Bummer.

I'm not of the opinion that the closer "position" is of vital importance to a team with championship hopes, but dominant relievers are nice to have. Braden Looper, for all his velocity, never was one, but in 2004 he had a career year control-wise and did a very nice job.

If he had come back last year and shown that he had indeed taken his game to the proverbial next level, I wouldn't be anxiously following the Wagner-Ryan sweepstakes... but he didn't, so I am.

Ryan was the play, having been mayor of the next level for the past two years. He hasn't had the career as a closer that Wagner has, but it's hardly his fault that the Orioles kept going to Jorge Julio in the 9th for as long as they did. He's younger and healthier than Wagner, and his stuff is at least as vicious. He also gets bonus points for looking like the corn-fed Pittsburgh closer at the end of "The Natural."

It's not the end of the world, but even if Omar does manage to land Wagner, it's probably going to be with a much longer contract than would be prudent. I've said it before, I don't mind the idea of a Bell-Padilla 8th-9th. Middle relievers can pitch in the 9th. I've seen it happen time and again.

Hot Stove Action Shakes Negligent Blogger Out of Torpor

I apologize for the long layoff. I'll be posting semi-regularly (once or twice a week) through the offseason, before getting back to my every weekday schedule as Spring Training starts up.

For now, the business at hand is the hot stove, particularly the Mets' acquisition of Carlos Delgado. I can't help but think back to last offseason, when the free agent courtship ended on less-than ideal terms (Delgado signs with FLA for a contract of lesser face value, calls out Omar for playing the race card, etc.). Surely, it would have been preferable for that process to have gone smoothly, making Delgado a Met at the cost of cash only, rather than Yusmeiro Petit, Mike Jacobs, and a PTBN named Grant Psomas (all praise to Vinny for the Psomas info and some very thoughtful coverage generally). To say nothing of making him a Met a year earlier, which, I think we can all agree, would have made the '05 Mets a whooole lot better.

On the other hand, that's why they call them free agents, and the trade should be evaluated on its merits. I've made no secret of my fondness for Yusmeiro Petit, whom I consider one of the top 5 pitching prospects in all the land. I am well aware that the book on him is that he gets by more on deception than stuff, and therefore could be susceptible to getting smacked around above Double-A by savvier hitters.

Do I buy this? I do not. I don't care if he tops out at 83 mph. He has 429 strikeouts as a professional against 75 walks, he turned 21 this past Tuesday, and I fully expect that before too long we will wish he were taking the mound at Shea.

Now that I have that off my chest, I think it's a sensible trade by Omar. First base was a crime scene last year, and Delgado's decline from his Toronto hey has been fairly gentle. He's going to be better than, say, Jim Thome next year, and didn't cost as much in terms of '06-big-league talent.

Last year I wrote out what the lineup should look like with Delgado aboard here. With another season and partial off-season under our belts, here's how I would like to see the '06 lineup:

1. Carlos Beltran
2. David Wright
3. Carlos Delgado
4. Cliff Floyd
5. Xavier Nady
6. Ramon Castro (boy, C. Hernandez would be nice here)
7. Kazuo Matsui
8. Jose Reyes

There it is. That's right, for those who had forgotten, I'm that BP-addled guy who hates on Jose Reyes... But there'll be plenty of time to get into that.

Happy Holidays,

SF