2009 Preseason Predictions

After the longest spring training I can remember, the regular season starts tonight with ATL @ PHI. Which means it's time to etch my preseason predictions indelibly in the internets, so that after they prove prescient I'll have proof.

NL East

Mets

Braves

Phillies

Marlins

Nationals

NL Central

Cubs

Brewers (Wild Card)

Reds

Cardinals

Pirates

Astros

NL West

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Rockies

Padres

AL East

Red Sox

Yankees (Wild Card)

Rays

Blue Jays

Orioles

AL Central

Indians

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Royals

AL West

Rangers

A's

Angels

Mariners

World Series

Diamondbacks def. Red Sox

MVP

NL - David Wright

AL - Josh Hamilton

Cy Young

NL - Dan Haren

AL - C.C. Sabathia

Rookie of the Year

NL - Jordan Zimmermann

AL - Matt Wieters

All-Underrated Team

C - Chris Iannetta

1B - Joey Votto

2B - Kelly Johnson

SS - J.J. Hardy

3B - Adrian Beltre

OF - Cody Ross

OF - Carlos Beltran (that's right)

OF - Adam Jones

SP - Ricky Nolasco

SP - Javier Vazquez

SP - Clayton Kershaw

RP - Frank Francisco

RP - Carlos Marmol

All-Overrated Team

C - Joe Mauer

1B - Justin Morneau

2B - Mike Aviles

SS - Alexei Ramirez

3B - Evan Longoria

OF - Ichiro

OF - Magglio Ordonez

OF - Nick Markakis

SP - John Lackey

SP - Carlos Zambrano

SP - Chad Billingsley

RP - Kevin Gregg

RP - Francisco Cordero

Cramer wasn't recommending Bear stock

Bad Rap Alert!

Foreign Policy has a list of the 10 Worst Predictions of 2008. I like that Bill Kristol gets the top spot, even though a lot of people thought HRC would roll Obama. But their #2 pick is a travesty.

My view of Jim Cramer's predictive abilities, and, yes, personal integrity have dimmed this year, but it's simply not fair to accuse him of recommending Bear Stearns (BSC) as a stock pick on March 11. What he was saying, accurately, was that it wasn't necessary for the caller to close his account with Bear's brokerage operation. Even as Bear shareholders got almost wiped out, Bear clients simply became JPMorgan Chase clients, and were no worse off for it.

Would he have said the same thing if he knew what kind of shape Bear was really in at the time? Probably not, but the fact remains that he was not telling people to buy the late BSC. Foreign Policy should stick to its guns!

via AMC's twitter feed

Leveraged long

On the presidential race I'm staking out the relative high end of the prediction spectrum:



On the close Senate pickups I think I'm on the more pessimistic side, except for Franken (who doesn't seem like a lock by any means). Good guys first:

CO - Udall beats Schaffer*
NH - Shaheen beats Sununu
MN - Franken beats Coleman
OR - Merkley beats Smith
NC - Hagan loses to Dole
GA - Martin loses to Chambliss
KY - Lunsford loses to McConnell


* This race hasn't been close for a while but it bears mentioning because Schaffer, from what I've seen from their Meet the Press debate and certain Youtubes, is almost comically unappealing.

h/t to Ross Douthat for the embeddable prediction map.